Unemployment predictions for May June 1, 2009Posted by geoff in News.
It’s that time again: the BLS will release the unemployment figures for May at the end of the week. But for those of you who are as impatient as I, we can jump the gun a bit and update the infamous unemployment chart with the projected value for May of 9.2%:
Looking at this chart, we can see three things:
- The unemployment rate has started to flatten out a bit, as predicted
- It may not break 10% (though there are predictions of 10.7% floating around)
- The stimulus has still had absolutely no effect on the economy. That, of course, is no surprise
As has been pointed out before, the most striking thing about the chart is how poorly the actual unemployment rates were predicted. It is likely that Obama’s economists’ predictions were so far off the mark because of several factors:
- Geithner’s early missteps spooked the market
- The excessively large spending package(s) intimidated investors and business owners, who are worried about debt, inflation, and future tax increases.
- Obama’s economists had no clue as to how slowly money percolates through the government.
Friday will bring the real numbers, but in April the predicted numbers were dead on, so I don’t expect to see much change.
UPDATE: The R&B Version of The Chart, Replete with Little Dots Instead of Big Triangles for the Math-Challenged Among You