Military & Defense Industry: Assume the Position!! June 11, 2010
Posted by geoff in News.trackback
No military for you!!!
A panel commissioned by Rep. Barney Frank (D-Mass.) is recommending nearly $1 trillion in cuts to the Pentagon’s budget during the next 10 years.
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Not cutting the Pentagon’s budget could lead to higher taxes and spending cuts detrimental to the environment, housing and highway construction.The acceptance of the recommendations would depend on a “philosophical change” and a “redefinition of the strategy,” Frank said at press conference on Capitol Hill.
Specifically, Frank is recommending:
- Reductions to the F-35 program (the one that was supposed to make additional F-22 buys unnecessary)
- Delaying the Air Force’s top priority: a refueling tanker
- Reducing the Navy to 230 ships (instead of building to 313, as their 30-year plan calls for)
- “Reforming” military compensation
- “Reforming” military health care
- Reducing recruiting funding
- Downsizing the Army and Marines as they withdraw from Iraq and Afghanistan
- Reducing nuclear warheads to 1050 (from the 1550 in the latest treaty)
- Cancelling the V-22 Osprey
- Cancelling the Expeditionary Fighting Vehicle
That sounds great. Really great. Gutting the military just as we enter a period where our geopolitical supremacy is waning. And I’m sure it’s just a start.
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*Reductions to the F-35 program (the one that was supposed to make additional F-22 buys unnecessary)
This is just a precursor to them cutting the F35 entirely. They will claim unit costs are too high, just like with the F22, and cut the program entirely.
*Delaying the Air Force’s top priority: a refueling tanker
Not that it matters because the Air Force won’t have the air superiority to use them.
*Reducing the Navy to 230 ships (instead of building to 313, as their 30-year plan calls for)
Wouldn’t want to get in the way of Chinese subs moving into blue water dominance.
*“Reforming” military compensation
Stopping the race to see which congressman can give the biggest raise to show he cares wouldn’t be too bad
*“Reforming” military health care
This won’t happen, taking the legs out from under, quite literally, a wounded soldier will never get put into law
*Reducing recruiting funding
Probably don’t need super bowl ads and NASCAR cars, as long as recruiting offices and similar operations remain funded no problem there
*Downsizing the Army and Marines as they withdraw from Iraq and Afghanistan
RIFs are a fact of life
*Reducing nuclear warheads to 1050 (from the 1550 in the latest treaty)
This would be fine if we developed next gen delivery methods. But with the refueling tanker getting the ax above, and the geo-political impossibility of building a strategic missile, that isn’t happening. Just making it so that Tin Pot dictators need 500 less war heads to feel at parity
*Cancelling the V-22 Osprey
Classic. Years of development and it finally gets to where it is usable, and the troops love it. Then you cut it. They can’t see beyond their nose apparently.
*Cancelling the Expeditionary Fighting Vehicle
Another example of paying the development costs then never wanting to build one
>> “Reforming” military compensation
Wow I wonder what the hell this even means.
Because members of the military make SOOOOOOO much money as of now.
Wow I wonder what the hell this even means.
Heh. It certainly doesn’t mean increasing their pay. I think they’re looking to save $55 billion from that alone.
Moving to Israel is looking better and better everyday!
Ya know, I’m thinking 2013 might be an awesome year to be heavily invested in the defense industries.
Ya know, I’m thinking 2013 might be an awesome year to be heavily invested in the defense industries.
…of another country.
Ya know, I’m thinking 2013 might be an awesome year to be heavily invested in the defense industries.
NAh, the next administration is gonna need to rebuild what these assholes destroy.
cha-CHING!
I like the way you think.
Heck, 2012 is gonna be a great year for the military industrial complex. Bomb shelters, shotgun shells, and canned foods don’t make themselves, you know!
Punk – That is assuming we are able to finish out 2011 (or 2010).
Call me a pessimist, but I don’t see that happening.
Call me a pessimist, but I don’t see that happening.
You are far too negative to merely be a pessimist.
Wiserbud – that could very well be.
At least nothing surprises me any more.
As someone who works with guys who fly and maintain the Osprey, and who is fairly familiar with the program’s development, I can say with confidence that there is no way in hell the Osprey is getting canceled unless Frank has another idea of what to replace it with.
Here’s the thing about the Osprey–the pilots love flying it, but it’s a hangar queen (the mission capable rates on these planes are absolute dogcrap), and one that’s gone from appx. $35 million when it was first being developed to nearly $90 million per plane now. The plane is yet another classic example of the “plans/reality mismatch” that Chuck Spinney wrote about in the early 1980s, where defense contractors underestimate costs to get awarded deals on weapons platforms, and end up spending far more to get far less than originally planned. Now, technological advances have played a role in this, but it’s undeniable that a lot of pie-in-the-sky promises get made that dance on the line of fraud because getting these R & D contracts are so lucrative.
With that being said, anyone who’s read Richard Whittle’s recent book on the Osprey is aware that the Marines are heavily invested in the V-22 being a success (because it ties into their amphibious assault mission), and are the primary reason Dick Cheney wasn’t able to kill it in the early 1990s as SecDef. Frank’s been in office a long time, but the Marines know how to play this game and play it well, and they have allies in Congress and the defense community who will see to it that this gains no traction.
And as I mentioned earlier, what is going to replace the Osprey? The H-53s that are left are getting more beat up (or, in the Air Force’s case, retired completely) and there’s nothing else in the pipeline. Does Frank really think the Marines aren’t going to take the prospect of being rolled into the Navy, because their primary mission has been compromised due to the lack of a fleet, as a real threat and something they will fight with everything they have?
If the Osprey is going to go away, it’s because the cost of maintaining and flying these planes becomes prohibitively expensive AND something can be brought on to replace the Osprey; either of these factors by themselves won’t get it cut from the budget. So unless Frank proposes an alternative to have Sikorsky build a whole new fleet of H-53s, the Osprey ain’t going anywhere, no matter how much of a PITA it is.
HeartlessLibertarian – How about the S-92?
http://www.aviastar.org/helicopters_eng/sik_s-92.php
Personally, I like the S-92/H-92, but tapping it as a replacement would take a miracle for several reasons–foremost, it has less speed and range than the Osprey, and doesn’t have a record of success in head-to-head bidding with other platforms.
One thing people need to realize is that the specter of Operation Eagle Claw hangs over the whole V-22 program. The idea that a force can be inserted into combat, quickly, without having to do a hot refuel, and GTFO of Dodge has been the whole justification for this program from the very beginning. The Clinton administration also revitalized it because it bought into Bell’s assertions that the platform had massive potential for civilian use, which could help lower the overall costs through mass production. That probably won’t come to pass now, and ultimately I think that is what is going to kill the platform dead in about 10-15 years–IF a replacement can be found, of course. I doubt the Marines would look at the H-92 as a step up from the Osprey, and ultimately they will probably be the ones who make or break any new platforms that are introduced.
The H-92 was also rejected in favor of the H-47 when the Air Force was trying to find a CSAR-X replacement, AND was rejected in the Marine One competition before Gates shelved both programs last year, so I can’t see how a platform that’s already been turned down twice is going to suddenly gain converts unless they get some VERY powerful advocates in Congress.
In a lot of cases, weapons platforms are not chosen based on their functionality, but because of whom their advocates happen to be and what can be pushed through. The A-10 is a great example–even though its a great plane and perfect for the CAS role, the Air Force has always hated it and has no real plans to replace it once the last aircraft goes to AMARC. Bbut it managed to make it this far because the plane’s advocates were more powerful and/or politically astute than its critics. Same for the Osprey–it had more savvy supporters to keep the platform alive in the face of withering criticism and crashes that killed Marines.
The irony of all this is that when the Air Force has to recapitalize its HH-60 fleet (and this may hold true for the Army as well, I’m not sure), the modifications may end up making the Pave Hawk look and fly a lot like the H-92.
Thanks for sharing your insights, HL! You have given me some effing knowledge on this subject, for sure!
I was in the Defense Biz (both Active Duty Army followed by Defense Contractor) for almost 2 decades, but a lot has changed since then.
I was actually in the US Army when the Operation Eagle Claw disaster occurred. The humiliation still stings me to this day.
One of the problems our Government has, as you outlined above, is spending money like a drunken sailor on shore leave on R&D without following through with a purchase. I have seen R&D money spent as basically an industry “keep-alive” between contracts so all the talent a Contractor has doesn’t fly the coop.
While I survived the Carter cutbacks in the Army, it wasn’t very pretty. How can Defense keep spending on so many programs when our cash has been committed to other…. shit?
Dang, Heartless, sounds to me like you spend all your spare time reading Combat Aircraft Magazine.
I read the article about the S-92/H-92. Sounds good to me. Apparently it has the capacity to carry all of the thugs in an entire Boy Scout Marching Band, with instruments, to wherever the action is. I’ll bet this is a market that Sikorsky has not thought of.
Most of you probably do not realize that a Boy Scout Marching band is a truly fearsome unit.
I, however, have personally witnessed the expressions of shock and awe which invariably appeared on the faces of anyone within earshot when we began to play.
For example, when my Mom took this picture, she looked really scared.
I am an unapologetic underachieving Boy Scout.
Did the whole suburban Cub Scouts, Webelos, Boy Scout – .
I believe I was Order of the Arrow, First Class Rank Boy Scout, working slowly on my Star when I finished High School.
Despite my heavy Marching Band background (Trombone, 5th thru 12th, Video available!), the Boy Scouts never crossed that clarinet line.
Taps on Trumpet was all we ever got.
My deepest apologies for the horrific end of my previous second sentence.
Appropriate mockery may now commence.
“I was actually in the US Army when the Operation Eagle Claw disaster occurred. The humiliation still stings me to this day.”
TXMarko, if you have a few spare bills, I’d recommend picking up Richard Whittle’s book that I mentioned above on the Osprey. It’s probably the most objective assessment of its development, and he discusses just how significant Operation Eagle Claw was to forcing the military to re-evaluate its special ops and rescue capabilities, and how the Marines single-handedly kept it going.
I’m not sure how many people would agree with me on this, but I consider that time period surrounding Eagle Claw to be one of the major watersheds in our country’s history–it seems that much of what is influencing our foreign and military policy developments can be traced back to the hostage crisis, and how the military and the country responded to it.
“Dang, Heartless, sounds to me like you spend all your spare time reading Combat Aircraft Magazine.”
Not really, just a bunch of working hours reading up on recent history in my unit when they hired me on. As I mentioned, we fly V-22s, and I came on right at the tail end of the whole contract appeal process that Lockheed and Sikorsky had initiated after Boeing had the H-47 approved as the new CSAR-X platform, so I’ve gotten to see our commanders have to adjust the development of our infrastructure and programs on the fly.
I think you just said that you like soft-core lesbian pron, like Ace.
DId I get that right?
I don’t have Ace’s Valu-rite addiction, so we’re not exactly the same.
Barely Legal, the magazine of kings…oh, wait…
…you guys weren’t really talking about smut, were you? Dangit, and my love of dollar-store filth! Why must my obsessions always get me in trouble? Why?
I’d heard that Frank’s commission had suggested that the F-35 get cut entirely right off the bat, not just reduced so it would look better to cut later.
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[...] (Via Innocent Bystanders.) [...]
Anybody got Barney’s contact info? I’m a little low on cash, and could use an “internship.”