I think I’ve found my new career!!!! July 30, 2010
Posted by wiserbud in Science.trackback
I want to work for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration!!!
I was looking at the accuracy of the NOAA’s hurricanes predictions since 2002, wondering how their estimates and accuracy has changed over the last decade.
They started out pretty well, then were all over the place with their estimates between 2004 and 2007. In fact, they underestimated events in all three categories (named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes) in 2005 (the year of Katrina), then wildly over-estimated in 2006, being high in all three categories.
Anyway, their overall accuracy rate since 2002 works out to them being right ~46% 0f the time. (to you idiots, that’s less than half the time.) To be fair, they do give their estimates a percentage of confidence, which can range anywhere from 50% to 75%. Wow, that’s pretty confident, huh? So, we’re confident that, half the time, we will be right about half the time. Nice work if you can get it, huh?
So, with this in mind and after exhaustive research, I hereby declare myself an expert in tropical storms and hurricanes and make the following predictions for 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013 (with a confidence rating 50%. I’m either gonna be right or wrong.) MUST CREDIT WISERBUD!!!:
You don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows.
2010: between 9 and 17 named storms, between 4 and 10 hurricanes and between 2 and 5 major hurricanes.
2011: between 9 and 17 named storms, between 4 and 10 hurricanes and between 2 and 5 major hurricanes.
2012: between 9 and 17 named storms, between 4 and 10 hurricanes and between 2 and 5 major hurricanes.
2013: between 9 and 17 named storms, between 4 and 10 hurricanes and between 2 and 5 major hurricanes.
I will be tracking my predictions and will report back to you in 2014. Which, by the way, is more than the NOAA does.
Now. all I needs is a really cool logo and then, to just sit back and wait for the mad grant money to start flowing in.
Oh, and please, let’s be sure to destroy our entire economy by implementing economic policies based on the climate predictions of people who can’t even correctly estimate the number of storms we should expect each year better than half the time.
(cross-posted at H2, because I should have known those morons wouldn’t bother reading it before getting back to their truly important conversations re: food and stuff.)
NOAA called and suggested this logo: http://tinyurl.com/9v32h
I am glad to be in the land-locked Midwest. And I look forward to the day when they name a hurricane Wiserbud.
Any chance you can make the chart of their predictions smaller, and more difficult to read?
Just sayin’
Any chance you can make the chart of their predictions smaller, and more difficult to read?
hey, no problem!
here ya go!
http://tinyurl.com/2baos2t
Or you could hit “ctrl +” a couple of times too.
okay, that was really rude and I apologize.
I forgot where I was for a minute.
Sorry.
Just keep your bewbs under wraps and you’ll be fine, wiser.
In the Navy, we call weather-guessers; Aerographers. I used to tell them they were in the only rate in the Navy where being right 50% of the time could garner them a Navy Achievement Medal.
Just keep your bewbs under wraps and you’ll be fine, wiser.
I’ll try really, really hard, just for you, darlin’.
But I cannot make any promises.
>> Sorry.
HAHAHAHAHA. Fuck you!
*also I have felt up wiser’s boobs and they’re not bad. Not bad at all.
Wiser. Glad you’re here.
You & Dave make a great couple…
You & Dave make a great couple…
He’s like the Costello to my Abbott
Third base!
Who?
Third base!
That’s my kids’ favoritist comedy sketch ever. wiserbride and I were doing kind of a “who’s on first” thing over dinner one night and the kids thought it was funny, but didn’t quite get it all.
Showed them the sketch on YouTube. They laughed like maniacs.
So I guess I am their father after all.
Hmmmm….I’ve seen this someplace before. If only I could remember where.
(cross-posted at H2, because I should have known those morons wouldn’t bother reading it before getting back to their truly important conversations re: food and stuff.)
For what it’s worth, I didn’t read it over here either.
H2 = huh? >with lefty head-tilt thrown in for good measure<
Wiserbud:
My motto is, “If it hurts somebody, it’s funnier.”
My skin is a little thicker than most.
[...] in July of 2010, I posted both here and at Innocent Bystanders (I know, I know, but IB is always the go-to place for charts and stuff, amirite?) about a possible [...]