Helping Fact Check the POTUS’s SOTU: Are We Really Ahead of Schedule in Doubling US Exports?

Helping Fact Check the POTUS’s SOTU: Are We Really Ahead of Schedule in Doubling US Exports? January 25, 2012

Posted by geoff in News.
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Two years ago, I set a goal of doubling U.S. exports over five years. With the bipartisan trade agreements we signed into law, we’re on track to meet that goal ahead of schedule. (Applause.) And soon, there will be millions of new customers for American goods in Panama, Colombia, and South Korea. Soon, there will be new cars on the streets of Seoul imported from Detroit, and Toledo, and Chicago.

Kinda wondering if we’re really on track to double US exports over five years. Lessee:
Hunh. So 2 years ago we were at $140 billion/month in exports, and now we’re stalled at just under $180 billion/month. In fact our export situation hasn’t improved much since last April, so we’ve been stagnating for 9 months. Must be the power of those trade agreements.

So where will we be in 5 years? If we take our progress so far, exports have been growing at about 13.4% per year. If we continue that growth rate, we’ll get to an increase of 85%. Not quite the 100% the POTUS was bragging about.

But he can be forgiven for thinking it would be easy. After all, Bush did it:

Given that exports doubled in the 90′s and again under Bush, Obama’s economic team probably thought we were due. And given that our exports were doing very well in 2008, they probably thought that they could take credit for the natural rebound in exports once the global downturn passed.

But alas, that day appears to be farther and farther away:

Although the stock market has displayed the most powerful early year rally in 15 years, investors hesitated Tuesday as the International Monetary Fund said the globe is in a precarious financial situation and at risk of a worldwide recession.

In a report on the global economy, the IMF said the eurozone is “deeply into the danger zone,” and the risks are spilling into the United States, Latin America, Asia and other emerging markets. IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard called Europe the “epicenter of the danger” and said that if the financial crisis intensifies, “the world could be plunged into another recession.”

I think Obama’s optimism isn’t very well founded.

But then, harking back to our “Recovery Summer,” it never is.

Comments»

1. geoff - January 25, 2012: A little more on the trade agreements that Obama is counting on:

While the deals with Colombia and Panama are likely to have limited economic impact, the agreement with South Korea is designed to break down barriers between the United States and the world’s 15th-largest economy.

The South Korea deal has the potential to create as many as 280,000 American jobs, according to a recent assessment by the staff of the U.S. International Trade Commission, and to boost exports by more than $12 billion.

But some people don’t believe it will be a net win for the US:

Several major labor unions have warned that any gains will come at the cost of layoffs among American workers because of heightened competition from South Korean imports.
…
“The truth is, I think this is going to cost us jobs,” said Clyde Prestowitz, a Reagan administration Commerce Department official who founded the nonpartisan Economic Strategy Institute. Prestowitz noted that South Korea is a major exporter of textiles, steel, machined parts and semiconductors, among other goods.
2. Michael - January 25, 2012: South Korea is a major exporter of textiles . . .

I own about eight tailored suits that I bought during multiple trips to South Korea, really inexpensive ($200, special rate negotiated by my client Phil), made with dirt cheap Korean textiles, sweatshop labor, and a tailor who actually knew what he was doing (his order book was mostly U.S. embassy personnel and military officers). After the first two fittings, all you had to do was go to his shop and point at bolts of fabric. The suits would show up about six weeks later in a FedEx package. Those suits look great to this day.
3. geoff - January 25, 2012: I should do that. My problem is that I have to have suits in two places, and, given Men’s Wearhouse’s recent shenanigans, my primary cheap suit source is off limits.
4. Michael - January 25, 2012: I’ve bought suits at Men’s Wearhouse. Ever notice that the Men’s Wearhouse CEO (George Zimmer) lost his New York Jewish accent when he says “I guarantee it” on the TV ads? I’m talking about 25 years ago. He lost his accent.

He made the mistake of hiring marketing consultants.
5. geoff - January 25, 2012: Hey Michael:

I changed your comment (#2) info to your standard IB version – you had logged in under your Facebook account, so it was showing your last name.
6. Michael - January 25, 2012: Thanks Geoff.
7. lauraw - January 25, 2012: I heard recently about men’s suits available online from SK or maybe it was Hong Kong- really very reasonable, great fabrics. Basically you’re getting a gorgeous Italian suit for pennies on the dollar.

Not sure how they finesse the tailoring situation.
8. daveintexas - January 25, 2012: Tiny hands make the best suits.
9. lauraw - January 25, 2012: It blind-stitches the hem or it gets the cane again. It does this whenever it is told.
10. Retired Geezer - January 26, 2012: I bought a couple of suits in HK. One had no lapels and was custom tailored out of Gold fabric.

The other one was Double Breasted in a stunning Emerald Green.

They both fit great.

I still have zero fashion sense.

Good thing Bell Bottoms are still in style.

Wait, what?
11. Michael - January 26, 2012: The other one was Double Breasted in a stunning Emerald Green.

I will pay $7.85, cash money via PayPal, for a picture of you in that suit.
12. daveintexas - January 26, 2012: Emerald green is a good color I hear.

Innocent Bystanders