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Bye-Bye, Taiwan October 9, 2013

Posted by geoff in News.
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The Taiwanese forecast their own doom.

China will be able to fend off U.S. forces and successfully invade Taiwan by 2020, the island’s Defense Ministry said on Wednesday, the first time Taipei has given such a precise timetable for the threat it says it faces.

Sadly for Taiwan, the fight-or-flee decision point is likely to be much sooner for the US, which no longer feels that Taiwan is worth defending if great cost to the US is required.

I can’t remember the prediction I made several years ago, but I think I said it would be 2015 or 2017 when the US would not longer pose a practical deterrent to China. Not too far off, if the Taiwanese think it’s 2020 for no deterrent at all.

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Comments»

1. xbradtc - October 9, 2013

Thus ensuring the Chinese won’t have to fight for Taiwan. Taiwan will slowly be subsumed into the greater Chinese nation.

2. daveintexas - October 9, 2013

Back when I worked in Taiwan, they had only had free elections after 40 years of KMT rule. They are very much ethnically Chinese. I thing about a third of them wanted reunification, a third of them wanted complete independence, and a third wanted things to stay just the way they are.

China will not attack, to attack is to destroy the thing they want, this little powerhouse economic engine… 3rd largest in Asia Pacific.

But they will absorb, slowly over time.

3. ChrisP - October 9, 2013

Geoff,
Some of us feel Taiwan is worth defending.
To say …the US no longer feels that Taiwan is worth defending is incorrect.
The current administration no longer feels that Taiwan is worth defending.
This administration is doing their best to see that the USN is unable to defend anything. Even themselves…


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