Unemployment predictions for May June 1, 2009
Posted by geoff in News.trackback
It’s that time again: the BLS will release the unemployment figures for May at the end of the week. But for those of you who are as impatient as I, we can jump the gun a bit and update the infamous unemployment chart with the projected value for May of 9.2%:
Looking at this chart, we can see three things:
- The unemployment rate has started to flatten out a bit, as predicted
- It may not break 10% (though there are predictions of 10.7% floating around)
- The stimulus has still had absolutely no effect on the economy. That, of course, is no surprise
As has been pointed out before, the most striking thing about the chart is how poorly the actual unemployment rates were predicted. It is likely that Obama’s economists’ predictions were so far off the mark because of several factors:
- Geithner’s early missteps spooked the market
- The excessively large spending package(s) intimidated investors and business owners, who are worried about debt, inflation, and future tax increases.
- Obama’s economists had no clue as to how slowly money percolates through the government.
Friday will bring the real numbers, but in April the predicted numbers were dead on, so I don’t expect to see much change.
UPDATE: The R&B Version of The Chart, Replete with Little Dots Instead of Big Triangles for the Math-Challenged Among You
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Innocent Bystanders 
Curiouser and curiouser.
Geoff:
Where exactly is the data point relative to those triangles, which cover a lot of area? The apex? The center?
Do you have some kind of emotional problem with red dots on the data point?
I’m only asking because our new visitor from Bermuda sent me an email asking the same questions.
Needs more cowbell.
As anybody who has ever actually plotted anything knows, the data point lies at the center of the marker. There is no apex – it’s an equilateral triangle, fer crissakes! I like pointy markers, and I like unfilled markers because they don’t clutter the plot as much. Hence, you’ll usually get diamonds or triangles from me as my first choice.
Do you have some kind of emotional problem with red dots on the data point?
Not if I’m plotting smallpox incidence.
But look, I’ll be happy to plot up a separate version of the chart, with dots or whatever. We can call it the R&B* version.
*Retards and Bermudans
you can’t help it, it’s science.
But honestly, I made the triangle ginormous just so they would stand out to anybody even glancing at the chart. If people are unhappy with the resolution and have an interest in the actual numbers, I’ll be happy to supply them (8.5%, 8.9%, 9.2%: there, I’m done) or plot it in an alternative form.
One of the limitations here is that I have to hand-place the points on Obama’s chart, to make it clear that these are in fact his team’s predictions with no modifications or funny business. I’d much rather replot them and then start plotting the actual curve. But I’d lose all the dramatic effect.
The apex is the TOP CORNER.
Sheesh. I hate having to school some brainiac on his own field of expertise. Geoff, I would be annoyed right now, if I hadn’t stuck you with the tab for so many drinks in Denver.
The apex is the TOP CORNER.
Only if you define “down.” Since it’s trilaterally symmetric, there are three apexes.
…or zero. Here’s the math definition:
http://mathworld.wolfram.com/Apex.html
Hence, you’ll usually get diamonds or triangles from me as my first choice.
Diamonds are a girl’s best friend, Sweetie.
Only if you define “down.” Since it’s trilaterally symmetric, there are three apexes.
OK, let me take a whack at that.
DOWN MEANS DOWN, YOU MORON — THE FRICKIN’ BOTTOM OF THE GRAPH!!!!!
Otherwise known as the x axis on your graph, which is two-dimensional and only involves one quadrant, meaning, there are no negative values.
You’re such an abscissa-phile. Note that the apex of an isoceles triangle is independent of its orientation in space. Also note that the colloquial “down” really means “inward,” i.e., aligned with the force of the earth’s gravity. Which, since my screen is tilted at a delightfully ergonomic angle, does not make the graph and “down” aligned. Further, since your screen is undoubtedly tilted at a completely different angle, we cannot come to a common definition of “down” simply based on the pixels we observe.
Lawyers shouldn’t argue with mathematicians about math, any more than mathematicians should argue with lawyers about the color of Satan’s bedsheets.
Geoff, he’s in a mood this week.
Looks like geoff saw the memo and Michael did not. Typical lawyer.
We don’t have these discussions at the Hostages…..
Lawyers shouldn’t argue with mathematicians about math . . .
Oh yeah? We know how to look stuff up. Try to find a definition of the “isoceles triangle” that Geoff mentioned. You can’t do it. He’s just makin’ this shit up as he goes along, hoping we will be intimidated.
We don’t have these discussions at the Hostages…..
I know. That’s why we all go there to act retarded.
we cannot come to a common definition of “down” simply based on the pixels we observe.
Well, OK, we need a gravity-based definition. So how about this: “Down is the direction that Geoff is gonna fall when Michael sucker-punches him in the belly, which is generally the same direction as the bottom of his graph.”
Also note that the colloquial “down” really means “inward,” i.e., aligned with the force of the earth’s gravity.
Actually, all kidding aside, that’s kind of a cool thought. I suppose “down” always depends on adjacent mass. The x axis on the graph on my monitor is “up” to someone in Hong Kong.
Reminds me of reading a zillion science fiction novels when I was a kid.
*takes notes for the screenplay he’s going to write for a comedy series called Nerd Wars*
Lawyers shouldn’t argue with mathematicians about math, any more than mathematicians should argue with lawyers about the color of Satan’s bedsheets.
hahahahahaha! I think that is going into the Comment Hall of Fame!
Brewfan: Red Dot Lover.
Reminds me of reading a zillion science fiction novels when I was a kid.
The way you go back in time and edit your comments reminds me even more of sci-fi.
I think I’m committed to giving away my sci-fi collection, BTW. My son doesn’t want to read any of the old stuff, and I never have time for it anymore. So I’m trying to think of a worthy recipient -probably should check with Mrs. Peel.
Hope she has a big house…
comedy series called Nerd Wars
Don’t you dare lump me in with Geoff.
Look, I passed algebra, trigonometry, calculus, and statistics. Yeah, I admit it, I know what a “coefficient of variation” is.
But, I did this because I had to.
Geoff enjoyed it.
Brewfan: Red Dot Lover.
Tushar and I are just friends.
When I was a little kid, we had a big willow tree in our back yard.
A good summer afternoon for me was to climb that tree with A Wrinkle in Time, get comfy on an upper limb, and read.
Geoff enjoyed it.
Ya got me there.
Tushar and I are just friends.
Har.
Time for some beer ‘n anime. See y’all later.
At my monthly village board meeting tonight, the chief of police advised us that he got us on the list for donated helmets for next years bike rodeo. Who’s the donor you ask? The biggest personal injury law firm in the area.
I laughed out loud.
I gotta admit, I enjoyed statistics.
To this day, it bugs the fucking shit out of me that 99.9999% of the media do not know even something as simple as the difference between an average and a mean, much less the critical role of random sampling in making the latter meaningful. They say stupid shit all the time because of this.
/end rant
Is 1894 sf enough, geoff? Also, are you going to need visitation rights?
Statistics, if taught well, also teaches critical thinking. It’s a valuable field of study.
Maybe I should explain that.
An “average” is some numerical value which is obtained by dividing the actual values for an entire “population” by the size of the “population.”
So, for example, let’s say your population is men in the United States. You can google up the “fact” that the average age they marry is 27.7.
That’s not actually an average, because nobody really knows the age at which all U.S. males marry. They don’t even know the age of all U.S. males, which is the defined population. A school teacher can figure out averages for the grades given to 30 kids in her class, but you can’t do that with large populations.
The number is actually a mean, which means it is the average for a sample that supposedly represents the population.
Now, it ain’t guaranteed that the sample represents the population. That depends on two things that are easily done wrong:
(1) The sample size. (This really doesn’t have to be all that large if the population is very large, which is why Nielson does TV ratings based on a relatively small group of people.)
(2) The sample selection must be random!!!!! This is what easily gets fucked up all the time. The sample is skewed, so the results are bogus.
This, by the way, is why Democrats are always bitching about the Constitutional requirement that the census must be an “actual count,” which the SCOTUS has so far enforced. Democrats know that various lowlifes and scumbugs in shitty neighborhoods who are too stupid to fill out a census form, i.e., their natural constituents, are probably being undercounted.
So they want to introduce statistical sampling into the census process. Of course, once you do that, the census is endlessly going to be subject to political manipulation by controlling the sample, which controls the flow of federal largesse. That’s why one of Obama’s first moves was to put the Census Bureau under the control of the White House. He’s going to come up with a “statistically adjusted census” and have federal largesse distributed on that basis to his pals at ACORN.
Math is sexy.
Legal lingo is sexy.
Poetry is….
*nodded off*
Depends on the poem. Though I have to admit that arousal probably would not be my first reaction to a guy reciting poetry. Unless (a) the guy was Monty (who has a thing for Song of Solomon) or (b) it was really manly poetry, like The Charge of the Light Brigade or something.
Monty never ceases to amaze me.
The mean, the median and the mode. Which should we discuss?
In unrelated poetry news, I got a seven page letter from my dad on Friday, a sort of eulogy/remembrance for his recently passed sister. In it he recites Thanatopsis.
If you knew my dad, you would have been no more expecting that than me.
He doesn’t Google.
hey it is kind of lively over here tonight. Can I hang out with the geek kids? I am a motorhead I do not fit in with the cool kids or the geeks. But I can kick ass racing!
Peel do you like going fast? My Vmax can do 0-150 in 13 seconds (1/4 mile in 11 at 130)
Actually, Sobek is another intellect that amazes me. I very rarely think people are smarter than me, but he is.
Actually, Muslihoon amazes me too, now that I think about it, except I want to go cock-slap him out of his parents house and into his own apartment.
Dave does not amaze me. He is dumber than a stump, and his nanner trees are weak.
But Dave is funny Michael.
I do like going fast, but on a motorcycle, I would definitely have a death grip on the driver.
With my thighs.
Anyway, Thanatopsis, sure. I’m just sayin’, if some dude starts comparing me to a summer’s day, I’m going to check him for balls and I assume I’m going to come up empty.
(Just thought I’d contribute to lowering the tone of discussion around here. You’re welcome.)
(ok, I think I better go to bed now…)
But Dave is funny Michael.
Fuck you, Vmax. You’re right, but still — fuck you.
Can I hang out with the geek kids?
If you are going to defend Dave, the answer is NO.
With my thighs.
*Michael revs up his Royal Star*
I love it when Mrs. Peel talks dirty. It’s so out of character for a Methodist. I can tell we are good for her.
Michael,
all I can say is do band geeks get Mrs Peel to have a death grip with her…..thighs……? Huh? come on?
.
.
.
Mrs Peel, true story.
I was flying down the road one day 130+
I passed something with long blond hair in a convertible.
.
.
It was like a magnet I had to look.
.
.
.
Unfortunately a helmet is streamlined for looking straight ahead.
.
.
Turned sideways?
.
.
I almost ripped my head off!
He quoted the postlude Peelie. The grave and shit.
My Royal Star will not do 130, not even close.
It’s actually totally engineered as a cruiser, meaning they were going for low RPM-torque, sound quality, and engine pulse.
Sorry about your Dad’s loss, Dave. But glad that it was a moment for him to share some feelings with his son, and some literary awareness that was a pleasant surprise for you.
Cruisers are better than rice rockets, I mean if you put a girl on the back of a rr she is sitting up there all alone. with her thighs wrapped around your chest. But the view driving by is worth it. Cruisers otoh? much more fun.
Thanks Michael. We had a good call this weekend. I also learned something about the safe in his dad’s store that he shut when he was a kid and his dad couldn’t remember the combination to it.
I think it’s not all that unusual that surprise benefits percolate out of a death in the family.
Maybe someone has a plan.
OK, Dave, now you got me thinkin’ and prayin’ about your situation.
*Michael thinks and prays*
Dave, I think God wants you to put some fertilizer on your nanner trees.
Dave, I think God wants you to put some fertilizer on your nanner trees.
Or have Mrs. Peel squeeze them.
Geithner’s early missteps spooked the market.
Yup. Especially his support of “restructuring” executive compensation.
The excessively large spending package(s) intimidated investors and business owners, who are worried about debt, inflation, and future tax increases.
Maybe not so much the first one, since most inflationary costs just get passed on. But what you might see, as opposed to the self-feeding deflationary death spiral many businesses are in right now, is a self-feeding inflationary spike, where people are panic buying to avoid potential price increases. That is never good for a consumer, though a seller, if they play their cards right, can make a killing by factoring “replacement costs” into their pricing structure during a price spike.
But the taxes, especially the ones on businesses and their purchases/activities/investments/PPE/and depreciation scales, would be devastating, causing shockwaves that extend beyond that business, influencing suppliers and vendors.
And the interest rates on credit lines, as well as tighter rules, will discourage future investment and risk taking ventures. Again, not good.
Obama’s economists had no clue as to how slowly money percolates through the government.
Triple Yup. Geithner worked at the World Bank, an institution so corrupt, inept, bloated, and inefficient, Third World DIctators tell them they need to loosen up a bit. And the rest of Geithner’s staff? Does he have one yet?
Oh, and The O-man himself? Not exactly an economist.
Spot on, Geoff.
There’s no tach on my Royal Star Tour Classic, btw, which is OK because it was all about retro styling with leather bags and chrome, and a speedometer set on the tank. There is no instrumentation on the handlebars, just an aftermarket leather bag that Cathy bought for me.
But here’s my gripe.
With no tach, they put a governor on it to keep me from wrecking that low-RPM-torque four-cylinder water-cooled engine they were so proud of.
And the governor is set too low.
WTF? The point of no tach is that I, the driver, should know what is going on based upon the engine whine and a reasonable estimate of when stuff is going to start blowing up. Which I do. Give me a break. I don’t need no frickin’ governor.
This was actually the beginning of Obama’s nanny-state socialism, if you want my opinion.
The RS is a V4?
My Warrior is a V-twin. No limiter.
I dropped the big assed can, Upped the tire size and chipped it. 95 hp is not 155 (Vmax). With a little $ I could prolly hit 140+ Or I could buy a new Vmax with 210 hp.
Hahahahahah
Buwhahahaha! 200+ HP in a bike!!!!!!!!!!
Those ginormous red triangles may be distorting the view, but it appears to me that we are worse off now than the White House was predicting without the stimulush. So we’ve commited our eleventy snillion McDollars and got bupkus. Lesigh.
You should really replace those triangles with dots, or better yet a new red line. Or at least make the triangles a lot smaller, so they look like dots.
The CHART is INCORRECT on Unemployment
1) The CHART needs to show 12% on the upper limits
2) With EXTENDED TIME BENEFITS, Official UE will be reaching
close to 11.2%
3) THE Cruve will not flatten out on the HIGH side
UNTIL 2 Q of 2011
4) Assumes no more international CONFLICTS, Man-made
or Natural Disasters
1) The CHART needs to show 12% on the upper limits
No can do, chief. It’s Obama’s chart. And he won, after all.
2) With EXTENDED TIME BENEFITS, Official UE will be reaching
close to 11.2%
You’re going to have to expound on that one.
3) THE Cruve will not flatten out on the HIGH side
UNTIL 2 Q of 2011
Unlikely.
4) Assumes no more international CONFLICTS, Man-made
or Natural Disasters
Duh.
Don’t take no crap, Geoff!
It seems the tide of public opinion is not favoring the triangles.
🙂
I’m embarrassed to admit I have had a couple of stats classes and I assumed Geoff was using the right point of the triangle to show the data point. The center of the triangle would look decidedly worse (meaning make your point even better) than what I was thinking. I think the “R & B” version would be more accurately understood by the great majority of those who have viewed your famous plotting.
And I duly noted that Micheal thinks he is smarter than me.
And the Satan’s bedsheets line was gold.
FTR, the triangles make perfect sense to me.
There. Happy now? Farking whiny, can’t-find-the-center-of-an-equilateral-triangle weanies. It’s not like triangles aren’t used throughout the scientific and engineering literature and in PowerPoint presentations worldwide on a daily basis. But noooooooo. All of a sudden they’re a huge farking mystery.
I mean, really. If there were squares, which corner would you be trying to pick? If it was a circle, which part of the circumference would you be using? Why is a triangle so flipping confusing? Save for the sharp corners, it’s topologically identical to every other polygon, all the way up to the infinite-sided polygon (the circle).
So why does everybody want to treat it like an arrow instead of a data marker?
And I might not be as smart as Michael, but at least I know that the correct construction is “I very rarely think people are smarter than I.” There’s an implied “am” at the end of the sentence, and you wouldn’t say “me am,” would you?
Correct: “I know English grammar better than he [does].”
Incorrect: “I write more gooder than him.”
(Also correct: “I have more mosquito bites than you [do].” *scratches*)
Also correct: “I have more mosquito bites inside my undies than you [do].” *scratches*
FTFY.
There aren’t any bites inside my undies. There is one that would be inside them if I were a dude who wore boxers, but that one is mostly quiescent today, having been through a couple showers. It’s the two recently sustained ones, on one wrist and the opposite elbow, that are bugging me the most right now.
Oh, I killed a skeeter today that left a smear of blood on the wall. Mr. Clean’s Magic Eraser cleaned it right up. *makes mental note*
There aren’t any bites inside my undies.
Riiiigghht. Then I suppose last night’s discussion was completely academic. Sure.
There is one that would be inside them if I were a dude who wore boxers, but that one is mostly quiescent today
If I were that bite, I would never be quiescent.
Unless you were a dude who wore boxers.
I AM SO FUCKING SICK AND TIRED OF BUGS. I just killed a ginormous one, with an assist from Pepper (who inadvertently stood on it as she barked at me while I was screaming).
I need a man around here. 😦
It went something like this: “AAAAHH! OH MY GOD WHAT IS THAT THING?” “BARK BARK! BARK! BARK!” “OH MY GOD YOU’RE STANDING ON IT!” “BARK! BARK!” “YOU’RE STANDING ON IT! AAAAHHHHH!!” “BARK BARK BARK! BARK BARK!” “GET OFF IT!” “BARK!” “AAAAAHHHHH! IT’S STILL ALIVE! KILL IT! NO, DON’T EAT IT! EWWWW! GET AWAY!”
Luckily, she gave up on attempting to eat it and lost interest, whereupon I dropped a paper towel on it and dispatched it with a single stomp. I don’t know what that thing was, but it was huge. Must have been a good 2″ long.
Texan bugs are second only to Floridian bugs, which come back as alligators in their next life.
I’ll never forget a 6″ centipede runnin’ around my living room. Those things are venomous and scary.
Or a scorpion. Luckily, it’s too wet for scorpions around here, but my relatives in Central Texas get them in their house all the time. Brrrrr!
It went something like this: “AAAAHH! OH MY GOD WHAT IS THAT THING?” “BARK BARK! BARK! BARK!” “OH MY GOD YOU’RE STANDING ON IT!” “BARK! BARK!” “YOU’RE STANDING ON IT! AAAAHHHHH!!” “BARK BARK BARK! BARK BARK!” “GET OFF IT!” “BARK!” “AAAAAHHHHH! IT’S STILL ALIVE! KILL IT! NO, DON’T EAT IT! EWWWW! GET AWAY!”
Oh my GOD, I’m dying over here. That’s freakin’ hilarious. Good one Mrs. Peel!
“There. Happy now?”
Yes. Thanks Geoff. I didn’t read the rest of the post – was not aware there was a statistics version of nerd rage. 😉
GLAR. And I thought it would be a quiet morning. Thanks Peel.
See Peel,
Another good thing about going fast on a motorcycle is the skeeters cannot catch ya.
You will want a full face helmet when it is love bug season though.
Did Pepper sound something like this?
Everything goes into Zeke’s mouth. He met a crown of thorns plant, and fore some reason attacked it!
In dog lingo, bark=hey!
It’s information.
The Triangles overlapped.
Dots don’t.
Just sayin’
But thanks for being on our show.
The triangles are a tad big just sayin’
But consider the gestalt of it… it is what it is. I’m starting to like them.
Heck, those huge ass triangles get noticed when Geoff’s chart is posted on all the other blogs and stuff. Geoff’s Cachet!
It seems the tide of public opinion is not favoring the triangles.
Public opinion is composed of a bunch of assholes. Public opinion favored Obama for President, and look what that got us.
Stick to your guns, Geoff. You’re right. They’re wrong.
I think you should replace the triangles with little pictures of Barry’s face.
Public opinion is for shit. It’s why we celebrated the turn of the millenium one year too early. That was the moment when I realized that the world was now irretrievably ignorant.
Heck, those huge ass triangles get noticed when Geoff’s chart is posted on all the other blogs and stuff.
This is the first chart in my life where I’ve ever used huge markers, and it achieved exactly the response I wanted – everybody who even glanced at it knew exactly what the point was. My other charts, like, say, the latest at my site which shows that the NYT is a flat-out prevaricator, are more technically accurate, but they don’t get much attention. The subject and initial exposure are important, but so is the presentation.
Heh, heh, heh.
Maybe we should put up a poll.
Do you think Geoff’s chart should have:
– Those ugly big-ass triangles
– Dots
– Little Obama faces
Well, if it’s Obama faces, what’s the center then? That huge mole he has on the side of his nose?
I say stick with the triangles.
I feel like the whole IB community is being torn apart by this controversy.
I hope you’re satisfied, Geoff.
I hope you’re satisfied, Geoff.
Heh. Back into your time machine, Batboy.
I hope you’re satisfied, Geoff.
FTFY
FTFY
Don’t worry, e-bear, he’ll hop into his time machine and fix it right up.
The triangles remind me of tracking bogeys on a radar display.
That makes them perfect.
^or a video game
I don’t know what you people are talking about.
Its O.K. Michael. I’ll bet the BatMobile is mostly analog anyway….
I’m not sayin’ that everyone from Angola is a sneaky bastard.
I’m just sayin’, keep track of your wallets. We got an Angolese in the house.
g’s triangles are like his ears…big, bold and at the top. Michael likes his smaller, lower and pointier. You can learn a lot about people from their avatars.
g’s triangles are like his ears…big, bold and at the top.
Ears? EARS?
and ^those glasses are only for viewing tiny avatars at a distance.
dare I inquire as to what those appendages are? Obviously these fake avatar glasses are in need of improvement…i’ll retain the grin for now.
I take it that you’re not familiar with Lo Pan?
Is he Obama’s economic adviser or do they manufacture pre-fried stir-fry?
Now that the graph is in dots, instead of triangles, do I look at the bottom of the dot or the top of the dot? It’s all so confusing.
Newsflash:
Renowned grapher and chartsman geoff recently went on a shooting rampage though the dextrosphere, leaving a trail of math illiterates and dim wits in his path. When questioned by authorities, all he would say was, “3 farking data points!” over and over and over…
I heart lorien!
ha ha haaa
*nudges geoff*
Come on, man, that was funny.
*left eye twitching madly*
Yeah, funny. So funny. I
want lorien’s heartheart lorien, too.Lo Pan is that noodle thingy, right?
*clutching sides and rolling on floor*
Dage: That’s Hung Way Lo, right?
I meant “Dave”.
Lo Pan is that noodle thingy, right?
I defer to your expertise on all things noodly.
The giant triangles make it harder to see where your actual data point is. And I’m a math guy, so you can knock of insulting your readers.
^and I’m a pr0n watcher. So what’s your point?
Re: #116
Thank you, sir, for speaking in defense of myself and others, and giving Geoff a well-earned comeuppance from a genuine Math Guy.
The giant triangles make it harder to see where your actual data point is.
Of course they do. But they make the rough location of the data points more obvious to the 95% of the readers who don’t care where the precise location is. And because I took the trouble to place them pretty doggone exactly, those who do care can figure it out.
…or plot it themselves, since I gave them the data points.
And I’m a math guy, so you can knock of insulting your readers.
Why would I ever do that? Especially if you’re a math guy? Or more especially if you’re just a sock puppet posing as a math guy? Or most especially if you’re just a sock puppet posing as a math guy who can’t find the center of an equilateral triangle?
Or more especially if you’re just a sock puppet posing as a math guy?
I thought it was Laura being her usual evil self, but Math Guy’s IP address has not been here before.
Instead of fractal math, Math Guy uses rectal math.
But yes, Geoff, I wish you’d stop insulting me.
It couldn’t be Michael. There were no references to Pure Lutheran Whateverism.
But yes, Geoff, I wish you’d stop insulting me.
Yannow, at this point, a big man would recognize the error of his ways, and offer a contrite apology for his venomous remarks and threats of bodily harm.
Just sayin’.
Just use that Kung Pao Fighting Tactics you learned.
*I* love the giant triangles for exactly the reasons geoff mentions. geoff is absolutely right in every way. You triangle haters can kiss my lily white ass.
See how it is? Insults and vulgarity from the triangle faction!
You people should be ashamed.
Snif. Only Mrs. Peel understands me.
Yannow, at this point, a big man would recognize the error of his ways, and offer a contrite apology for his venomous remarks and threats of bodily harm.
So, um, what kind of man would double down at this point?
Rhomboids feel left out.
>> I defer to your expertise on all things noodly.
I admit, I don’t know much about Chinese food.
You triangle haters can kiss my lily white ass.
Young lady!
Your language!
So, um, what kind of man would double down at this point?
Someone with a black belt in Kung Pao Fighting Tactics, that’s who.
You don’t scare me, mister.
Yes, I have mastered all the most difficult aspects of Kung Pao Fighting. For example:
(1) The Eagle’s Cry (“Cathy call 911!!!”)
(2) The Prairie Dog (dive into desk well and keep quiet)
(3) The Otter (offer money to avoid a severe beating)
(4) The Koala (make sad eyes and beg for mercy)
Yes, I have mastered all of these, and many more.
I don’t want to brag or nuttin’, but I have mastered one of the most difficult of the KP Fighting Arts:
The Punching Bag: Absorb your enemy’s blows until he is exhausted, then crawl away.
That’s pretty impressive, Geoff.
Do you actually have the second-degree black belt with the green stripe?
YAY!
We finally made 150 flags.
We really don’t need no more Canadians.
Thank you, Martinique.
Do you actually have the second-degree black belt with the green stripe?
I’m not sure. After taking the test I couldn’t open my eyes enough to see.
Yo, Bolivia, what is wrong with you?
You’re fucking up my flag map of South America.
Seriously, Bolivia, listen to me.
Look around you. Uraguay, Paraguay, Argentina, Chile, Brazil and Peru have all checked in.
You are missing.
I was expecting this snub from sub-Saharan shitholes, North Korea, the Asian Krapistans, and Iran.
But not from Bolivia. You are supposed to be a real country.
I look at it this way, Bolivia. You named your country after Simón Bolívar, a man of considerable consequence.
It just seems to me, having done that, you have an obligation to maintain some minimal presence on the intertubes.
That’s all I’m saying.
You triangle haters can kiss my lily white ass.
*Geezer tentatively raises his hand.
>> So, um, what kind of man would double down at this point?
A crazy, slide-rule wielding mufaku, that’s what kind.
Do it. Do it.
How do you do the flag sidebar thingy? Is that a widget? I’m gonna go look.
Let this be a lesson to you children watching at home: See the bitterness, anger, and psychotic behaviours that protracted triangle denialism can engender. Don’t wait until it’s too late-if someone you love is “experimenting” with triangle data points seek professional help immediately (never approach a triangle wielding lunatic alone, they are to be considered armed, probably with a slide rule, and extremely dangerous).
Oh God you guys are killing me. Sorry I missed this yesterday!
(2) The Prairie Dog (dive into desk well and keep quiet)
Ahahahaha! Excellent visual.
Agreed, lw. This is all good stuff.
How do you do the flag sidebar thingy? Is that a widget?
Hi Deb.
It’s not an official WordPress widget. Just copy the HTML code they offer at the Flagcounter site and paste it into a text box on your sidebar. The FAQs at the site tell you how to edit the HTML to vary the display.
Lizzie Borden killed her parents with an axe, because the slide rule was still in test.
Charles Manson wouldn’t be the lunatic he is today if it weren’t for the use of imprecise triangles on graphs.
Whenever I see a picture of Charles Manson, I always think that there should be a law allowing us to incarcerate people on the basis of having crazy-eye.
Anyway, I have a question: WHAT THE HELL IS SO FREAKING SCARY ABOUT ME?!?
Last week, I was talking to a guy I was interested in. We don’t often get a chance to talk socially, so I took advantage of the opportunity, and as we talked, I realized that he was nervous and intimidated. This guy is a huge Marine. I am literally a 98-pound weakling, and several years his junior. (Needless to say, I’ve now lost interest. Nice work, genius. Try not being a pussy next time.)
Thinking back on it later, I realized that out of all the men in my general age range I’ve met, only one was not afraid of me, and all the guys I’ve dated have actually wanted to be metaphorically crushed beneath my stompy boots.
WTF? No seriously, WTFF? I have to be one of the least intimidating people on the face of the earth. I’m probably the most sensitive, most easily hurt person you will ever meet. I’m a huge wuss. And I go out of my way to be as soft and non-threatening as possible. Apparently, I don’t do a very good job at that, because people are intimidated by me.
I just don’t understand it.
Perhaps you don’t come across that way and people who don’t know you do not know how you really are?
Plus, the intelligence factor is something to consider. Intelligence is relative, meaning people have different skills and though someone may not be extremely “booksmart,” they can understand and fix machinery, etc. Your knowlege of physics and engineering may be intimidating.
Then there are the guys, as you said, that enjoy being dominated by a 98 pound, supersmart woman in leather boots.
Apparently, I don’t do a very good job at that, because people are intimidated by me.
Gelfling: it is not being scary that intimidates them, it is being attractive and desirable. Guys get nervous and intimidated when the stakes are high; when there’s a lot to lose. The more they’re attracted to you, the more there is to lose when they actually talk to you. Going out of your way to be “soft and non-threatening” probably just aggravates the problem.
150:
You know Alexthechick too, I see.
I ain’t askert of ya, punk.
All serriousness aside, lots of young men exhibit symptoms of nervousness around attractive girls, getting flooded with adrenaline does wacky things to people. Similar to public speaking anxiety, pulse goes up, perspiration, little shakes. Some of us shake it off by being goofy, others not so much. My opinion ain’t worth much, but I think a fella who shows a little of that is more interested than not.
Of course, I’m an idiot so, you know.
…
Also a trianglist.
Well heck, didn’t see those.
Course, Geoff’s a trianglist too.
And I gots my suspicions bout compos.
If a guy opens his mouth to talk to you but accidentally swallows his tongue instead, then turns pale and stumbles away, he thinks you’re really cute.
WHAT THE HELL IS SO FREAKING SCARY ABOUT ME?!?
WTF? No seriously, WTFF? I
Maybe it’s because you use all caps and curse a lot.
The only man I’ve ever gotten nervous around is also the only man who isn’t intimidated by me…and, perhaps not coincidentally, a man to whom a tiny piece of my heart still belongs despite my best efforts to reclaim it. That makes me so damn mad because he’s never loved me and never will, and has not treated me anywhere near well enough to deserve such constancy. Dear Lord I hate myself so much for that. I keep thinking I’m over it and then it comes back with a vengeance. I haven’t even seen him for three years.
Anyway, I’ve dated plenty of guys who get nervous around me. It gets real old real fast. I’ve decided to hold out for a man who not only loves but understands me, and therefore loves me enough to not let me push him around.
and has not treated me anywhere near well enough to deserve such constancy.
When you find the right guy, that’ll evaporate very, very quickly.
Anyway, I’ve dated plenty of guys who get nervous around me.
You’re a catch. The stakes are high.
Peel,
Try acting helpless about something. If you come across as confident and in control of everything, there isn’t anything a man feels like he can bring to the table.
If you had confided in your Marine friend that you needed help with your marks-person-ship with your new pistol (even if you don’t), he would have had a problem to fix, a situation he could help with, a reason to interject himself into your life.
Dudes are like German Shepherds, you have to give us a job to do or we’ll just lay on the couch and get fat.
He was probably not being a pussy on purpose, most guys don’t whip out the testicles right away for fear of scarring off the quarry.
If you come across as confident and in control of everything, there isn’t anything a man feels like he can bring to the table.
That’s the Men are from Mars, Women are from Venus perspective.
He was probably not being a pussy on purpose, most guys don’t whip out the testicles right away for fear of scarring off the quarry.
*we listen in on Michael’s thoughts as he strolls nonchalantly through the mall*
“WTF, where’s all the effing quarry?”
And will someone with a Hot Air login please go here and tell those guys to come to this thread instead of the old April thread?
Aww, but I like testicles.
Man, I am having a really girly week. Screaming at a bug in the kitchen, coercing my dad into tearing up my closet for me, and now whining about men. Guess I ought to grow some (metaphorical) balls of my own and quit being such a wuss.
Peel, ya gotta let a man be a man. Don’t fault him for being what he is.
Let him take care of you. Surrender, sister.
Man, I am having a really girly week.
Plus there was that thigh-clutching thing going on earlier this week. Penultimate girliness (completely unsubtile [sic] use of semisexual reference fully
extended, er, intended).My thighs actually are surprisingly powerful given my minimal exercise and general physical weakness. I would demonstrate, but, um, yeah.
*bites tongue*
I’m more of a Men Are From Mars, Women Are From Someplace Way The Fuck Over There philosopher myself, but most guys are ready to assert themselves if the prize is won. Not sure what would make a fella want to get pushed around in the relationship Peelie, but I really don’t think thats the same dynamic at work with the jitters at the outset. Thats a high risk thing happening and does indicate genuine interest.
Sometimes I wonder how I didn’t walk out in front of a bus at those moments.
Some of you have seen me in action, so I will withdraw from this conversation.
It’s all a part of the big game of who’s smarter than who. Some relationships thrive on a close battle of give and take, while others fall apart without a clearly superior combatant to take charge. Lots of guys are secretly looking to be an alpha in the latter, and very uncomfortable with the former (you could make the argument that we’re hard-wired that way). But at the same time, men are being emasculated and told that being “the man” in a relationship is dumb and wrong by the society at large. Basically guys don’t know what the fuck to do anymore. I count myself among them.
^I just go outside and chop wood. Wimmins are too complicated for me.
Then again, so is microwave popcorn.
I’m reminded of a lady I know. She has a doctorate, she’s a college administrator, she’s always serving in a local political office and is in the middle of whatever’s going on. She can be a very intimidating person. She’s married to a blue collar guy. Work universes don’t overlap. When they’re together, she never seems to be pushing him around. She dotes on him. It seems a little unusual to me, but they seem to have figured it out. They’ve been married a long time.
A blue-collar guy is probably less likely to get pushed around by the wife, I’d assume.
Peel, maybe too much estrogen is leaking into the water supply in your community. Check the size and shape of the pectoral muscles. Iffin they look like they need a bra, stay clear of ’em.
most guys don’t whip out the testicles right away for fear of scarring off the quarry.
*Geezer makes note to self.
“scarring the quarry”?
You mean mentally?
You’re dating dot kinda guys, Peel, and you’re a trianglist, they can smell it on you.
FIE ON THEE AMERICANO! WE SPIT ON YOUR WEBSITE! PTUI!
Get a motorcycle Mrs Peel,
That will scare the crap out of all the girlie men. The ones that think it is hot and have the stones to approach you are a different kind of guy. (they may not be the kind of guy you are looking for, but they will not be wimps)
Or go fishing.
Different type of person (in my case not, but) you are much more likely to find a salt of the earth, hands on, self confident type there too. Not to mention it is a great opening to get a cute one to help you fillet your catch or something like that.
Do not have them bait your hook for you that is the stereotypical girl thing. (no double
entaendriesintended (crap I cannot spell engrish words let alone those frenchy ones!)Trying to back up Michael on the triangle vs dot point, and I flubbed a paren. )
The boyfriends who were not at least a little intimidated by me at first all turned out to be selfish assholes who had little respect for me.
Ditto Pupster’s idea about asking him to help you with target practice. Get a guy to teach you something that is in “his world of expertise” and his nervousness will dry up.
With any luck he’ll stand behind you and put his arms around you to teach you the proper grip 😉
According to comedian and syndicated talk show host Steve Harvey, gals are supposed to “Act like a LADY and think like a MAN” and give their men three things…
Support
Loyalty
and the “Cookie” (and he don’t mean the Snickerdoodles, honey).
You know, there’s always a third way. I present to you…
+
But Will, would the data point be located at the top of the plus sign or the right?
182 you mean a + instead of a triangle or a dot? a +is just a dot with lines coming out of it kinda like a * but less.
I ditto the casual shooting lesson encounter suggestion.
Well, at least all the dotters and the trianglists can agree that Will is a moron with his plus sign idea. We have something in common.
*shakes head*
How does that get brought up in conversation? I mean, is it that normal for a chick to ask a guy to help improve her grouping?
I guess you could ask him if he wants to go out to the range and then he’ll get the idea to help you out while you’re there. Is that the general idea?
Make sure to use words like “cock” and “shoot” while suggestively raising and lowering your eyebrows.
Laura:
It’s texas. They have strange mating rituals down there.
No matter the context, when I ask my wife if she needs help improving her grouping, she calls me a dirty pervert
you say “um dude I am starting to develop a bad habit of jerking my trigger, can you give me some tips on how to squeeze it.” If he appears competent at the range then you move on to more financial considerations such as his ability and willingness to handload for you. Very critical that you progress quickly to this stage of a relationship in these days of limited factory ammo.
Well, we actually WERE talking about guns toward the end of the conversation. He was giving me suggestions on a carry weapon and told me about his collection. I thought about dropping a hint that I would be interested in seeing it, but didn’t because I couldn’t think of a subtle way to do that (and we do work together, you know). (Also, I wasn’t sure I could keep from referencing the “this is my rifle, this is my gun” ditty.) So it wouldn’t have been that hard for me to say I needed help with my marksmanship. He doesn’t know that (a) I don’t and (b) if I did, I would ask the former sniper I know.
Remember:
Breathing is important as well.
Lauraw, normally you’d just pull the gun out and fire bout four rounds into the nearest tree while screaming GUN!!GUN!!!
Then when the commotion died down you point at it and mention you could use a little help.
*shakes head*
It ‘mazes me that Texans have to explain perfectly normal social customs to folks from elsewhere.
Not too many of us Yankees went to finishing school.
So I never got to go to “How to Invite a Gentleman to the Shooting Range” class. I imagine it went a little like this:
*A Lady NEVER asks to see a Gentleman’s ‘Collection,’ lest she be misunderstood/ the subject of coarse jokes.
*A Lady ALWAYS watches the Gentleman shoot first, and takes the opportunity to compliment his aim or form.
*A Lady NEVER refused a Gentleman’s help with breathing and aim.
*A Lady may allow a Gentleman to encircle her with his arms briefly during the lesson, solely so that he may assist her with her grip. A Gentleman NEVER uses this occasion as an opportunity to make honk-honks with her chi-chis.
A Gentleman NEVER uses this occasion as an opportunity to make honk-honks with her chi-chis.
Damned antebellum codes of conduct.
It would be more like “peep-peep” with mine. OH SNAP!
(wait…can you “oh snap” yourself?)
Never honk the chi chis?
…
I’m doing it wrong then.
honking chichis?
Hey! I don’t speak French!
Not a good idea to take liberties when the honkee has a loaded pistol in her hands.
I might have tried it though, if Kevlar Chick hadn’t been such a good shot right out of the gate.
It would be more like “peep-peep” with mine.
I believe that the skilled practioner could work his way much farther down the scale than that. Not that I would ever admit noticing, but I’m thinking that “honk-honk” is well within the realm of possibility.
Pelvic grindage upon the lady’s backside is also discouraged in this situation, as it could adversely affect her group.
۞
WheRe’s yOur goD NoW?
Ahem… anyway.
My question is, which is a more appropriate location for a “casual shooting lesson?” I personally can’t stand indoor shooting ranges. I much prefer a good embankment or hillside out in the desert.
>>I might have tried it though, if Kevlarchick hadn’t been such a good shot…
*ponders things I might be willing to take a bullet for.
…
yep.
Heck, Dave, I bet you’d get off with a mild pistol-whipping.
Heh. I’ll bet he would too.
*eyebrow waggle*
O RLY?
Nobody liked my fishing idea?
Or my motorcycle idea?
Sheesh tough crowd.
Eh, how many women fish after the age of 12?
But keep the Zeke photos coming! Love the new avatar.
[…] any case, here is the new number for May: 9.4%, which is 0.2% we had shown in the chart from a few days ago: Oh dear. And I’m serious – I expected the numbers to flatten out like it looked like […]
I Guess I need to ASK obama then to revise his chart, what is
his email..
Needs 12% upper limits
UE benefits, as they run out, these unemployed, are not longer
OFFICIALLY counted, RIGHT?
So that is why. with EXTENDED benefits and EXPIRING benefits
we may not get OFFICIAL numbers above 11.2%
SEE POST 62 ABOVE
UE benefits, as they run out, these unemployed, are not longer
OFFICIALLY counted, RIGHT?
No they figured that out a long time ago. Instead of looking at unemployment insurance, they conduct a survey to establish unemployment figures.
I wonder what the DETAILS are on conducting the SURVEY?
Any help here?
So, you are writing here that the official UE office
numbers receiving benefits are NOT or are taken into
consideration?
I was lead to believe in my MBA class they mentioned
they used current filings and number receiving benefits?
Go to bls.gov and look at the CPS FAQs under the National Unemployment Rate section.
Ah hell, here you go:
[…] leave a comment » In any case, here is the new number for May: 9.4%, which is 0.2% higher than we had shown in the chart from a few days ago:* […]
The plan is working folks, the majority of economists including the Fed Reserve, CBO, Zandi, (not Obama’s economists, that sounds like Coulter) were all low on their forecasts. The fact is, the Bush mess was worse and deeper than though and if it were not for Obama’s Recovery program, unemployment would be at 11% or higher.
Go find a job, do something worthwhile with your lives-you’re clearly too short term minded to make any sense with your half empty glass garbage.
For those who look at the BLS data, look at unemployment starting in January 2007 to current. It looks like GW launched the ‘unemployment rocket’ into space and it just hasn’t reached apogee.
You should try actually reading the post and doing some background research instead of flailing like that. That was pitiful.
That was pitiful.
Case in point:
For those who look at the BLS data, look at unemployment starting in January 2007 to current.
It’s in the graph above, moron.
geoff, stop fighting with the trolls and go get a job. Honestly.
geoff, stop fighting with the trolls and go get a job. Honestly.
Oh that’s right – I completely forgot that the plan was working. Getting a job is easy-peasy now that we’ve only hit 9.4% unemployment.
[…] Their composite prediction was that unemployment would increase by 0.2% in June. Last month they predicted 0.4%, and we got 0.6%, but they were dead on with their April guess. We’ll see how they do this […]
so in 2014 it would have been the same with or without….we need to see after 2014 when it crosses over
[…] predicted numbers for May from a few days ago, with some thoughts on why unemployment is worse than expected even without the […]
Interesting points. I’d like to see where we would be if Bush was still in office and we didn’t have obama’s stimulus package!