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Initial Unemployment Claims Drop. Big Deal. November 5, 2009

Posted by geoff in News.
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Tomorrow heralds the release of the unemployment numbers for October. 10% here we come!! But to whet your appetite, today we have the seasonally adjusted initial unemployment filings (updated this morning by the Department of Labor).

Initial-Unemployment-Filings-October

So we’re declining pretty steadily – in 5 or 6 months we could be down to the break even point (~ 350,000), where we’re no longer seeing more initial filings than hirings. Then, after that, hopefully we’ll see them continue to drop, so that we can start recovering the ~7 million jobs we’ve lost.

But all of that’s true only if the job market behaves as it has in the past, when the number of unemployed was smaller and less persistent. If the initial filings are dropping not because of fewer job losses, but because too many people are ineligible to file (being on unemployment already, for instance), then the declining number of filings isn’t a hopeful sign at all.

The only reliable statistic anymore is the actual number of employed people. Based on the filings so far, I expect tomorrow’s numbers to show that that’s dropped as well. But stand by until about 8:45 EST, and we’ll see what happens.

Comments»

1. kevl - November 5, 2009

My CEO talks to the top timber and steel suppliers in the US. They are forecasting a 20% drop in production/orders for the next TWO years. This year was a 12% drop.

I believe the Lumberjacks.

2. geoff - November 5, 2009

This year was a 12% drop.

News like that is causing a drop in my timber.

3. kevl - November 5, 2009

So much for National Morning Wood. Sorry pops.

4. geoff - November 5, 2009

So much for National Morning Wood. Sorry pops.

Fortunately the IB ladies (and, of course, my own) carry copious amounts of antidote.

5. Dave in Texas - November 5, 2009

BOING!

I’m told by the construction dudes that there is no “new steel” manufacturing going on to speak of, it’s all recycled now.

6. kevl - November 5, 2009

Recycling steel uses just about as much energy as forming it from scratch. The old timers I talk to bitch constantly about expense of recycling. They say “ain’t no steel like virgin steel.”

Either way, it’s about at a standstill.

7. Dave in Texas - November 5, 2009

Nothing like blue steel either.

8. Tushar - November 5, 2009

OT:

There is still one place out there that loves and respects President Bush:

http://www.forbes.com/2009/11/03/george-w-bush-india-obama-hindustan-times-opinions-contributors-ashok-malik.html

Thank you, Mr. President.

9. Pupster - November 5, 2009

Kevl,

You misspelled ‘Pups’.

10. geoff - November 5, 2009

Do I have a new avatar yet?

11. geoff - November 5, 2009

Nope.

12. kevl - November 5, 2009

I like your avatar. Looks like The King. And I dig The King. We had one guy dress up like The King here at work last week. I swooned.

13. Dave in Texas - November 5, 2009

Yes, you have a new av. Empty your browser cache.

14. geoff - November 5, 2009

Yay!! It changed!! It’s this

15. d3ft punk - November 5, 2009

Political Math makes a point about the saved or created jobs

16. Michael - November 5, 2009

Cool new avatar, Geoff.

Remember, Geoff, way back when, I told you to call your blog “Big Trouble” and go with the Lo-Pan theme?

That advice was marketing gold.

You could have been an internet sensation. Your charts would have rocked the world.

Instead, you are doing seismic tremors at this lame site.

17. Michael - November 5, 2009

Cool new avatar, Geoff.

Remember, Geoff, way back when, I told you to call your blog “Big Trouble” and go all-out with the Lo-Pan god theme?

That advice was marketing gold, even though you ignored it.

Still, I truly believe that you, individually, have affected the political debate that is going on in America today.

Good for you. That is the power of the intertubes. A math geek like you, or a tireless ex-lawyer like Ace, can actually make a difference.

God bless America. Land of the free.

18. Michael - November 5, 2009

I mean, up until today, we are free to express our opinions.

*Michael fondles his Kimber .45 1911 semi-auto*

I’m not so sure about tomorrow.

19. geoff - November 6, 2009

I mean, up until today, we are free to express our opinions.

What happened to your earlier comment?

20. Michael - November 6, 2009

It’s back at #17. Just didn’t sound right, so I edited it.

21. October Job Losses Accelerate Again – 10.2%! « Innocent Bystanders - November 6, 2009

[…] jobs lost, and an unemployment rate at or just below 10%. Just based on initial unemployment filings, I think you’d have had to count on people continuing to drop out of the system to get […]

22. geoff - November 6, 2009

Still, I truly believe that you, individually, have affected the political debate that is going on in America today.

That’s not quite true. I, individually, tried to make the same point at my blog back in March. No effect. It was only when I came here and had you and laura promoting the post that it had an impact.

That advice was marketing gold, even though you ignored it.

I’ve never denied that. I suck at marketing. Or caring about marketing. But I’m perfectly willing to be managed.

23. Unemployment 10.2% Where is the “recovery?” « Oldhardhead's Weblog - November 6, 2009

[…] jobs lost, and an unemployment rate at or just below 10%. Just based on initial unemployment filings, I think you’d have had to count on people continuing to drop out of the system to get numbers […]


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