Wow – Back to 10%? December 4, 2009Posted by geoff in News.
As noted yesterday, the pundits were predicting that November’s unemployment rate would be unchanged from last month’s, and that only 100,000 jobs would be lost in November. But the numbers released today show a much rosier scenario: the unemployment rate has dropped to 10%, and non-farm employment barely changed. Here’s how that looks on the graph:
The number of employed people went up last month – a result I find difficult to square with the persistently high initial unemployment filings:
I’m not sure what these numbers mean quite yet: I’ll be modifying this post as I look at the data this morning.
UPDATE: Honestly, I’m not going to have time to get to this today. I recommend that you go to Calculated Risk for more analysis. It appears that hiring of seasonal labor is higher this year than last, which is consistent with the BLS’s note that there was a jump in temporary labor in November. But it seems to me that there’s more to it than that.
Here’s a list of relevant posts at Calculated Risk:
# Employment Report: 11K Jobs Lost, 10% Unemployment Rate for graphs of unemployment rate and a comparison to previous recessions.
# Seasonal Retail Hiring, Employment-Population Ratio, Part Time Workers
# Unemployment: Record number Unemployed over 26 Weeks, Diffusion Index
# If the Economy lost Jobs, why did the Unemployment Rate decline?
Previous posts in this series:
- The October numbers
- Initial uemployment claims through the end of November
- Initial unemployment claims through the end of October
- A “million jobs saved?” A drop in the bucket.
- Comparing the administration’s statements to reality
- The September numbers
- The August numbers
- The “million jobs saved” claim
- Initial unemployment filings
- The July numbers.
- The percentage of private-employed workers is steadily decreasing, meaning that the burden of supporting government workers is increasing. How long can this trend continue?
- The June numbers.
- Mark Zandi (Moody’s Economy.com) kind of agreed with the Obama team’s projection back in January. But his predictions weren’t much better.
- Saying that “the recession is worse than anybody thought” is a tired old tune
- Everybody did not “guess wrong” on the stimulus package
- The corrected chart for May.
- The predicted numbers for May from a few days ago, with some thoughts on why unemployment is worse than expected even without the stimulus package (and a hearty discussion in the comments on proper graphing)
- A look at the stimulus package spending – how late it is, and how little thus far has been devoted to job creation (it’s basically gone to pay off states’ social services debts)
- The April numbers
- The original post on the subject, noting that criticisms of the stimulus package may not have been motivated by racism after all.