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Initial Unemployment Filings as of mid-March March 25, 2010

Posted by geoff in News.
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The Department of Labor released the initial unemployment filings report for last week, announcing a seasonally-adjusted figure of 442,000 filings. Here’s where we stand:

Ed Morrissey points out that they changed the seasonal adjustment this week, giving themselves 8000 fewer filings than they would have had with the old adjustment.

But even with the revised adjustment, I think the striking thing is how closely the weekly data hews to the line. The message there is that the job recovery has been independent of the Obama administration’s policies. Stimulus programs have caused oscillations around the line, but the linear trend doesn’t change much.

The only notable change since I started plotting these numbers last year has been that the date when we reach “break-even” status has slipped by 2 months, from mid-June to mid-August. That’s the real effect of the administration’s policies – pushing recovery off as increased government spending and a business-unfriendly political environment continue to suffocate America’s companies.

Comments»

1. Bunk Strutts - March 25, 2010

I ran across this (entirely by accident) and thought you’d like to parse it a bit… like extending the graph to include data since GWB took office in 2001. http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/recoveryanniversary/

2. deadrody - March 25, 2010

Hey – was curious what this chart would look like as a sum of total cumulative new claims. Should be asymptotic, but I’m not sure where the cutoff would be or what it would represent.

Just a thought

3. geoff - March 25, 2010

I ran across this (entirely by accident) and thought you’d like to parse it a bit

I think Political Math already did a decent job of examining that chart, but I could take a swing at it later.

4. geoff - March 25, 2010

Hey – was curious what this chart would look like as a sum of total cumulative new claims

It will just keep going up. even in a growing economy, we would expect to see something like 300K claims per week.

5. deadrody - April 8, 2010

Another suggestion – two trendlines. Keep on with the one you are using, and start another one in about December of 2009. The last 18 data points or so do seem to fit the overall trend ok, but on their own they have been remarkably consistent between 400K and 500K. That trend looks pretty flat to me.


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