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I think I’ve found my new career!!!! July 30, 2010

Posted by wiserbud in Science.
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I want to work for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration!!!

I was looking at the accuracy of the NOAA’s hurricanes predictions since 2002, wondering how their estimates and accuracy has changed over the last decade.

They started out pretty  well, then were all over the place with their estimates between 2004 and 2007.  In fact, they underestimated events in all three categories (named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes) in 2005 (the year of Katrina), then wildly over-estimated in 2006, being high in all three categories.

Anyway, their overall accuracy rate since 2002 works out to them being right ~46% 0f the time.  (to you idiots, that’s less than half the time.)  To be fair, they do give their estimates a percentage of confidence, which can range anywhere from 50% to 75%.  Wow, that’s pretty confident, huh?  So, we’re confident that, half the time, we will be right about half the time.  Nice work if you can get it, huh?

So, with this in mind and after exhaustive research, I hereby declare myself an expert in tropical storms and hurricanes and make the following predictions for  2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013 (with a confidence rating 50%.  I’m either gonna be right or wrong.)   MUST CREDIT WISERBUD!!!:

You don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows.

2010:   between 9 and 17 named storms, between 4 and 10 hurricanes and between 2 and 5 major hurricanes.

2011:   between 9 and 17 named storms, between 4 and 10 hurricanes and between 2 and 5 major hurricanes.

2012:   between 9 and 17 named storms, between 4 and 10 hurricanes and between 2 and 5 major hurricanes.

2013:   between 9 and 17 named storms, between 4 and 10 hurricanes and between 2 and 5 major hurricanes.

I will be tracking my predictions and will report back to you in 2014.  Which, by the way, is more than the NOAA does.

Now. all I needs is a really cool logo and then, to just sit back and wait for the mad grant money to start flowing in.

Oh, and please, let’s be sure to destroy our entire economy by implementing economic policies based on the climate predictions of people who can’t even correctly estimate the number of storms we should expect each year better than half the time.

(cross-posted at H2, because I should have known those morons wouldn’t bother reading it before getting back to their truly important conversations re: food and stuff.)

Comments»

1. BrewFan - July 30, 2010

NOAA called and suggested this logo: http://tinyurl.com/9v32h

2. kevl - July 30, 2010

I am glad to be in the land-locked Midwest. And I look forward to the day when they name a hurricane Wiserbud.

3. wamk - July 30, 2010

Any chance you can make the chart of their predictions smaller, and more difficult to read?

Just sayin’

4. wiserbud - July 30, 2010

Any chance you can make the chart of their predictions smaller, and more difficult to read?

hey, no problem!

here ya go!

http://tinyurl.com/2baos2t

Or you could hit “ctrl +” a couple of times too.

5. wiserbud - July 30, 2010

okay, that was really rude and I apologize.

I forgot where I was for a minute.

Sorry.

6. kevl - July 30, 2010

Just keep your bewbs under wraps and you’ll be fine, wiser.

7. MCPO Airdale - July 30, 2010

In the Navy, we call weather-guessers; Aerographers. I used to tell them they were in the only rate in the Navy where being right 50% of the time could garner them a Navy Achievement Medal.

8. wiserbud - July 30, 2010

Just keep your bewbs under wraps and you’ll be fine, wiser.

I’ll try really, really hard, just for you, darlin’.

But I cannot make any promises.

9. daveintexas - July 30, 2010

>> Sorry.

HAHAHAHAHA. Fuck you!

*also I have felt up wiser’s boobs and they’re not bad. Not bad at all.

10. Cathy - July 30, 2010

Wiser. Glad you’re here.

You & Dave make a great couple…

11. wiserbud - July 30, 2010

You & Dave make a great couple…

He’s like the Costello to my Abbott

12. daveintexas - July 30, 2010

Third base!

13. Cathy - July 30, 2010

Who?

14. wiserbud - July 30, 2010

Third base!

That’s my kids’ favoritist comedy sketch ever. wiserbride and I were doing kind of a “who’s on first” thing over dinner one night and the kids thought it was funny, but didn’t quite get it all.

Showed them the sketch on YouTube. They laughed like maniacs.

So I guess I am their father after all.

15. Hotspur - July 30, 2010

Hmmmm….I’ve seen this someplace before. If only I could remember where.

16. pendejo grande - July 30, 2010

(cross-posted at H2, because I should have known those morons wouldn’t bother reading it before getting back to their truly important conversations re: food and stuff.)

For what it’s worth, I didn’t read it over here either.

17. TGSG - July 31, 2010

H2 = huh? >with lefty head-tilt thrown in for good measure<

18. wamk - July 31, 2010

Wiserbud:

My motto is, “If it hurts somebody, it’s funnier.”

My skin is a little thicker than most.

19. Once again, Wiserbud proves that he is a true visionary and a genius « The H2: Crying about Christmas since March 2009 - December 13, 2011

[…] in July of 2010, I posted both here and at Innocent Bystanders (I know, I know, but IB is always the go-to place for charts and stuff, amirite?) about a possible […]


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