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The Democrats Are Toast November 6, 2010

Posted by Michael in Economics, Politics.

Even if Obama wins a second term, by the time he leaves office the economy, as measured by employment (non-farm payrolls) will be substantially worse than when the recession started.  This fate is already inevitable.  Politically, his goose is cooked, along with the rest of the Democrats.  The Democrats  can (and will) blame Bush for the recession.  They can’t escape the fact that they botched the recovery.

The chart below shows why.  The blue area represents the cumulative monthly job loss since the recession started in December, 2007 (before Obama took office), using actual data to the present, and then projecting that we return to “normal” employment by the time he leaves office.  The green line shows average labor force growth of 90,000 jobs per month.

The slope of the red line is the Democrat-killer.  It takes 230,00 jobs per month to break even assuming a static labor force, and 90,000 more to accommodate labor force growth.  In other words, for Obama (and the Democrat Senate) to get back to normal by the end of 2016, he needs to enact policies that create more than 310,000 jobs per month starting right now.  His presidency just gets worse every month he falls short of that goal.

[Click on charts to enlarge.]

via zero hedge.

Is there any chance he can pull this off?

Long story short — no.  This is why I’m sort of happy that the Dems kept control of the Senate.  It’s not even remotely possible that they can  get close to this target, given the structural problems with our economy.   So this fiasco is going to be on their nickel.  It’s going to take a long time for Americans to repair their personal and public balance sheets. Certainly there is no hope of improvement as long as Obama keeps reading Paul Krugman columns.  When Obama leaves office, even after a second term, people will still be pining for the Clinton-Bush years.

The chart below shows the actual job growth record during the recession from January 2008 through October 2010 (red=Bush, blue=Obama).  Keep in mind that employment is a lagging indicator — it follows economic growth.  The recession was officially over in June of 2009.  You will immediately notice that the employment recovery under Obama has been incredibly anemic by historic standards, and completely stalled last summer.  The “recovery summer” predicted by Sheriff Joe Biden, when all those shovel-ready infrastructure jobs would finally start digging, just did not happen.

October was actually a pretty good month for Obama, but we only added 151,000 jobs, about half of the target he has to hit in order to get that car out of the ditch in the next six years.

via Washington Monthly.

Here’s the same chart for private sector jobs — the jobs that really matter.   It omits the bulge caused by the census workers earlier this year, as well as the recent loss of state and local public sector jobs (which is probably a good thing).

via Washington Monthly.

If Obama continues to have pretty good months like October, the recovery could take 20 years.

Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics indicated that jobs growth in the private sector climbed by 159,000, a faster pace than in recent months. Overall, nonfarm payroll employment rose by 151,000 in October.

However, Heidi Shierholz, an economist at The Economic Policy Institute, notes that given the backlog of 14.8 million unemployed workers in the U.S., at October’s rate of job growth it would take another 20 years to bring the unemployment rate back down to the 5 percent level of December 2007 (at the onset of the recession).

Shierholz also cited that the workforce dropped by 254,000 in October, pushing the labor force participation rate down to 64.5 percent, well below its prerecession level of 66.0 percent in December 2007.

20 Years To Reduce Unemployment

What do  you think the odds are that our Community Organizer In Chief is really going to figure out how to get government out of the way and let the private sector grow the economy any faster than that?  You are right — the probability of that happening is zero.

There has been speculation in some circles that Obama will not run for reelection.  Who knows what he is thinking?  If I were in his shoes, I would pull an LBJ and bail.



1. Jay in Ames - November 6, 2010

Gee, thanks for that ray of sunshine!

2. Nan G - November 6, 2010

Obama is in India with business leaders proving your last point: that all he is is a Community Organizer In Chief.
He WANTS government in the way instead of out of the way.

Bob Kerrey, Ex Dem Senator suggested that all Obama is good for is read off a teleprompter and go on decorous vacations..therefore Obama should create a job opening for a person to RUN the Executive Branch for him!!!

Love your new chart.

Haven’t seen an unemployment chart from you in a while.
(I especially appreciated the addition of Timmy G’s line, btw.)
Has it lost its ability to tell an accurate story with so many people quitting their search for jobs?

3. Michael - November 6, 2010

Haven’t seen an unemployment chart from you in a while.

Geoff does those. He moved to the big leagues and puts them up now at Ace of Spades HQ. The most recent one is here.

4. kevl - November 6, 2010

The next question is will the Conservatives find and select a scowling, brass balled, badassed, lovable fuzzball candidate for Prez? I sure hope so. I’ve not seen him yet.

It ain’t Romney, it ain’t Huck, and it ain’t Palin. Please no.

5. daveintexas - November 6, 2010

Mike Pence.

6. Michael - November 6, 2010

Christine O’Donnell.

7. BrewFan - November 6, 2010

Paul Ryan

8. kevl - November 6, 2010

Paul Ryan is a darling, but I think he already said no, didn’t he?

9. BrewFan - November 6, 2010

He did say no. But I think it was a ‘right now no’. Or at least I hope so.

10. daveintexas - November 6, 2010

Dems are toast in Ohio.

Well done Ohi-an..Ohioan.. Oh Hiyo-yans.

11. Herr Morgenholz - November 6, 2010

What he “inherited” from Bush was the dead-assed bottom of the job loss curve. Practically from the minute he took office, it had nothing to do but get better. How much faster would be rolling if he wasn’t pulling his Hugo Chavez routine?

12. Lipstick - November 6, 2010
13. xbradtc - November 6, 2010

Pence and Ryan are great guys, but need executive experience. Senators make shitty Presidents, and I can’t remember the last guy to go from the House to the White House.

Look at the Governors. And no, not Chris Christie.

14. Michael - November 6, 2010

Tim Pawlenty.

15. GrumpyUnk - November 6, 2010

Rumor is Pence is gonna run for Governor of Indiana in 2012. He resigned from his committee posts this week if I heard right.

I’ve heard him speak a few times and met him once, nice guy.

16. Cathy - November 6, 2010

I agree governors with the executive experience make better presidents.

Rick Perry has said NO and NO WAY. Bobbie Jindal also said NO. I think Chris Christie needs to stay where he is for awhile. He also said NO, probably because he knows he needs to clean up the mess for good or NJ will quickly back-slide.

Think Newt is gonna run, but waiting to announce. Not sure how I feel about that.

Conservatives are ‘toast’ if they don’t work together and pick the very best presidential candidate of the lot and then support the suckka and running mate instead of eating their own. Given what happened last cycle that concerns me.

Beautiful Charts, Dearest Michael. Me love charts. Thanks.

17. daveintexas - November 6, 2010

Pence is gonna skip that.

18. Vmaximus - November 6, 2010

I thought Texans did not care for Rick P

19. Michael - November 6, 2010

I thought Texans did not care for Rick P

Texas conservatives are not real happy with him. It’s kinda like — you dance with the guy who brung you.

20. JeffG - November 6, 2010

Mitch Daniels…

21. For you economists out there - November 6, 2010

[…] a look at the analysis here and let me know what you all […]

22. Michael - November 6, 2010

Wow, I’m honored.

I pimp my better stuff to Jeff all the time, and I think this is only the second time I have gotten a link.

23. Bob Reed - November 6, 2010

What do you think the odds are that our Community Organizer In Chief is really going to figure out how to get government out of the way and let the private sector grow the economy any faster than that?

Well Michael,
The way I see it there are just 3 chances of this happening;

1) Slim



The sad thing is that the bumbling of one man can sentance so many to misery for so long.

All the best

24. Bob Reed - November 6, 2010

Oh, and who’s runnin’?

Daniels, Palin, former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson, Pawlenty, and some person I can’t see clearly in my crystal ball…

25. Retired Geezer - November 6, 2010

I think Newt has too much baggage.
Much as I love Sarah, I think she is too vulnerable.
People don’t like her because the MSM keeps pounding her. I’m of the opinion, probably wrong, that if they only gave her a chance they would like her but Liberals are idiots.

I don’t know Jack about it. Ignore my comments.

26. Retired Geezer - November 6, 2010

But I sure like Marco Rubio.

That would bring the Hispanic vote.

I think the Lame Ducks will be up to some mischief before January… Blanket Amnesty… some gun-control thing… Cap and Tax…

27. Michael - November 6, 2010

I think the Lame Ducks will be up to some mischief before January… Blanket Amnesty… some gun-control thing… Cap and Tax…

I’m not so worried about that. The folks that got retired might vote for that on their way out of the door, but the survivors are too scared.

28. Instapundit » Blog Archive » LABOR FORCE STATS spell bad news for Democrats…. - November 6, 2010

[…] LABOR FORCE STATS spell bad news for Democrats. […]

29. JPeden - November 6, 2010

Communism is not interested in creating jobs and, regardless, has no idea how to create jobs. Latte’ Communism is all Obama, enc., knows and wants to know.

[Shouldn’t that be 320,000 jobs per month. instead of 310,000? It takes 230,00 jobs per month to break even assuming a static labor force, and 90,000 more to accommodate labor force growth.]

30. xbradtc - November 6, 2010

Michael’s having a good night. PW and Insty!

Haley Barbour? I hear he’s working on a run.

31. xbradtc - November 6, 2010

I’d personally be pissed to see a stud like Rubio bail out of the Senate two years after earning his way in. Let’s keep some talent in there.

32. Craig - November 6, 2010

Hey Michael, good post.

Could you post some charts from the 1982-83 recovery for comparison? We loaded up on jobs pretty quickly from 10% unemployment then…how many jobs per month were added then?

33. A to the F - November 6, 2010

Haley Barbour would be a brilliant VP, but carries too much tobacco industry baggage for the top slot.

What about Jeb?

34. jsallison - November 6, 2010

I’m suspecting that the man behind the TOTUS is heading for India to negotiate outsourcing all that tiresome executive decision making, leaving him to golf and the first wookie to party on. He aced the interview and got the job, so what’s next?

35. jsallison - November 6, 2010

Hello, you have reached the White House, this is Sanjay and I am pleased to be making your acquaintance this evening, how can I be of assistance? Jerusalem is in flames and Jericho is bring prepped for launch? One moment, I must transfer you to 2d level support, your ticket number is WH1T3OMG! in case I lose you…

36. Dobby - November 6, 2010

Former MD Governor Bob Erhlich would make a great President.

Obama won’t run again for re-election. Bayh will probably beat Hillary in the Dem’s primary.

37. celebrim - November 6, 2010

Mitch Daniels
Bobby Jindal
Marc Rubio

Personally, I’d opt for Mitch with one of the other two as VP. Bobby and Marc are both kinda young, and still have time for seasoning, so I can see either turning down the VP and I wouldn’t fault them.

38. LAI - November 6, 2010

Mike Castle. He has been a great loss for us!

39. Mousedigits - November 6, 2010

Joe Lieberman or Zell Miller

40. DRJ - November 6, 2010

Excellent post.

41. Otto Maddox - November 6, 2010

Well, if the economy were to generate 300,000 jobs a month, some people might get RICH. Can’t have that.

42. Michael - November 6, 2010


We now have every flag in Europe.

43. Cathy - November 6, 2010


Insta-Pundit and Protein Wisdom are cool…

…but the VATICAN FINALLY graced us with it’s presence! Woo-hoo!

Congrats, Michael.

44. fern st albert - November 7, 2010

The “golden age of American economic dominance” has come and past. I say this with great regret. Even if the unemployed find jobs, will they be at the same skill and wage level – the underemployed will be a drag on the economy for a very long time. Cheers.

45. Herr Morgenholz - November 7, 2010

The “golden age of American economic dominance” has come and past.

Only if we let it. Kill the taxes, kill the unions, and kill the entitlements, and we kick can like no one in the world.

As for 2012, we need Christie. He is exactly the type of executive required to do those three things. Since he’s not stupid, he’s said no. Palin is damaged goods, sadly. I love her, but she’s been mangled, and honestly doesn’t give that “executivey tingle”. Daniels? Probably the best mentioned thus far. If not, we need to pull a real ass kicker from the private sector. Whoever it is, NO MORE RETREADS AND NO MORE RINOS! Time to quit playing the politics game and look seriously at governing.

46. guinsPen - November 7, 2010

The Pope’s watching and all I’ve got is jobs lost or job loss.

And no orange marmalade neither, please.

47. Sarah Natividad - November 7, 2010

How about former Utah governor Jon Huntsman Jr.?

He’s currently serving as ambassador to China and he speaks fluent Chinese, so he knows a little something about foreign relations. And he has executive experience.

48. Locomotive Breath - November 7, 2010

It should be noted that the President has a relatively limited role in setting the economic policy of the country. The 2009 Bush/Obama transition is almost irrelevant. It’s really the House of Reps controlling the purse strings. That’s been in the hand of the Dems since 2007.

Bush takes some blame for the recession but not exclusive or even primary blame especially since he was a lame duck.

49. The Pope - November 7, 2010

Guten tag Michael,

I heard a Lutheran pastor and his wife were driving along Lake Shore Drive, in Chicago, and they were pulled over for speeding. As officer O’Malley (a nice Catholic boy) approached the pastor, he saw the pastor’s clerics, and mistook him for a Roman Catholic priest. “Oh, sorry about dat, fader. Uh, just try and slow it down a little, OK?” As they drove away, the pastor’s wife said, “Shame on you, Harold! That was unethical. You know who he thought you were!” “Oh, I know who he thought I was,” replied the pastor. “I’m just wondering who he thought you were.”

hahaha! Quit trying to imitate us you heathens!

Pope out.

50. ThomasD - November 7, 2010

Rapid job growth, even if Obama whad a clue on how to unleashing the private sector, would not save him. Since adding anything near 300,000 jobs monthly on a sustained basis would likely prove highly inflationary.

The real resistance to QE2 can be understood in these terms. Going forward with QE2 is a tacit admission that job growth just isn’t expected to happen. The Fed isn’t so much ‘re-inflating’ a bubble as it is propping up a Potemkin economy.

51. W - November 7, 2010

“The Democrats can (and will) blame Bush for the recession. They can’t escape the fact that they botched the recovery.”

When do we as conservatives, free-marketers, and Americans honestly lay our big government problems (debt/deficit/entitlements) where they squarely lay….DEMOCRATS. If the Democrats are going to constantly hammer the GOP with the blame for our current economic problems, why doesn’t the GOP and conservative leadership (and they are not the same, by the way) stand up and accurately point to our out of control entitlement programs (Medicare/MedicAid/Social Security, etc) are all the creation of the Democrats (socialists)?!?!

Granted, GW Bush and GHW Bush couldn’t identify Adam Smith or Milton Friedman if you put a gun to their heads, but seriously, when do we as AMERICANS ask the Democrats for their “exit strategy” on their vaunted “War on Poverty”? If Iraq/Afghanistan are “ill-conceived wars” at 8 years running, what is the War on Poverty at 40+ years?!?!? When does Sen. Reid stand up on the floor of the Senate and declare the War on Poverty…..”lost”?

When do Sen. Durbin and Kerry lament the human rights violations surrounding the enslavement of generations of Americans through the chains of government dependency?!?! Instead of Abu Grhaib and G’itmo atrocities, when do we righteously point the finger of guilt and shame at a party (Dems) that has perpetuated a system of dependence on government for the past 50 years? When does the black voter take an honest look at the recently revealed 70% + illegitimacy rate and realize that the black family in America has been “nuked” by the Democrats! Seriously, 70%?!?!?!

You get the point, but I would genuinely like to hear an honest debate as to how and why we arrived at our current financial situation as a nation. If the Dems are going to hang the “horse collar” on the GOP for the past 10 years (GW Bush squandered a surplus…nonsense), when do we take an HONEST look at the impact of Dem social policies from FDR to LBJ (SS & War on Poverty), from Nixon/Carter to Clinton ( Dept. of Ed/EPA, Community Reinvestment Act)?!?!?

52. ProgDef - November 7, 2010

Did you address this here? I’m too lazy to read all the comments. That’s jobs; but corporate profits and GDP could remain solid throughout this theoretically, right? If not both, the former?

53. timb - November 7, 2010

Thanks for rooting for the U.S., Michael. It’s good to know conservatives want to govern, since they have such breath-taking ideas as……[I’m drawing a blank] Oh, yeah, cutting taxes and using those increased deficits to cut the deficit.

Broad goals like returning the country to 2005 are not policies, Michael, and you have nothing to offer the American people. Still, you might want to go back to 1983 and 1984 or 1993-1995 to see how cumulative job growth numbers can really add up.

Lastly, if job growth is what it takes to get re-elected, how did W do it?

54. BrewFan - November 7, 2010

I’m drawing a blank

Truer words have never been written.

55. Red Rocks Rockin - November 7, 2010

Well, gee, Tim, where exactly are the jobs going to come from? Actual industries, mind you, that can find the funding, in an economy that is completely over-leveraged across all sectors, to grow the economy by an average of 300K new jobs a month for the next eight years, starting today.

All your non-sequiters aside, neither you nor anyone else on the left has the slightest clue what industries those jobs are going to come from. The 1990s-2000s were epitomized by two very obvious leverage-driven bubbles that were impossible to sustain, regardless of what the government may have tried to do to keep them going.

The current “recovery” is the result of a stock market bubble driven by Bernanke’s QE and debt monetization policies, which no one from either party is particularly interested in rejecting right now, for reasons that are obvious to anyone that’s read zerohedge, Market Ticker, or Naked Capitalism the last 2-3 years.

Ultimately, you criticize Michael for not cheering “USA! USA! USA!” and not offering anything, while trying to extrapolate the unique circumstances of the mid-80s and mid-90s to an arena where those circumstances no longer apply.

Good luck with making that stick.

56. JG - November 7, 2010

The economy has been brutal to the Democratic base.

African Americans and young folks have been hit the hardest in the job market.

57. Slartibartfast - November 7, 2010

There is apparently no plumbing the depths of timmah’s dishonesty.

Why do you hate America, timmah?

58. Jenny - November 7, 2010

Does the “labor force growth” trend line account for –

1. Boomers beginning to leave the labor force
2. Boomers who *want* to leave the labor force, but can’t because the gold-plated retirement package they were counting on is unfunded?

59. Michael - November 7, 2010

I don’t really know how the BLS cooks that number, Jenny, but the green line should account for the pending boomer exodus, a demographic fact that is well understood. Labor force growth is also, by the way, no longer being boosted by an increasing participation rate of women in the work force, a huge factor during most of my career which has now leveled off. Bottom line, I would guess that the green line mostly reflects immigration and the relatively fertile minority communities that are already here.

60. Dan King - November 7, 2010

I hate it when Republicans gloat about how bad the economy is. We’re supposed to be the optimistic party after all – you know, morning in America – all that stuff.

As much as I want Obama to lose, I don’t want it at the cost of millions of unemployed, reduced incomes, fewer choices. If Obama can lower taxes, reduce regulations, and regenerate a free market, then more power to him. Hell, under those circumstances I’ll probably even vote for him.

61. Michael - November 7, 2010

Broad goals like returning the country to 2005 are not policies, Michael, and you have nothing to offer the American people.

That right there is the mind of a liberal in a nutshell. Tim, the last thing we need is to have pinheads in D.C. eager to “offer the American people” some more “policies,” most of which we already know are futile. (Hey Spain, how did those green energy jobs work out for you?)

The American people need to fire the pinheads, put their policies in the dumpster, and get the federal government out of our way.

62. Michael - November 7, 2010

If Obama can lower taxes, reduce regulations, and regenerate a free market, then more power to him. Hell, under those circumstances I’ll probably even vote for him.

I’ll donate to his campaign and put up a yard sign for him.

63. Michael - November 7, 2010

And by the way, Tim, if you don’t think I have any particular ideas about how to streamline the government, here’s the list I came up with off the top of my head and published in a previous comment thread:

1. Close the Department of Agriculture. (By “close” I mean phase out all programs, giving the states enough time to assume whatever functions they deem useful, and eventually fire all the employees and sell the buildings.)

2. Close the Department of Housing and Urban Development.

3. Close the Department of Education.

4. Defund the Corporation for Public Broadcasting and the National Endowment for the Arts.

5. Suspend all foreign aid and disaster relief, at least until we can figure out how to do more good than harm.

6. Withdraw from the U.N. and NATO.

7. Gradually up the retirement age for Social Security to 70.

8. Gradually means-test social security benefits.

9. Replace the current income tax with a simple consumption tax that can be described in a 20-page bill.

10. Sell Amtrak, the TVA and the Post Office to private investors with no strings attached.

11. Shut down about half of the U.S. embassies, those that are located in places that we really don’t give a shit about.

12. Open up all coastal waters and ANWR to oil exploration, and clear all roadblocks to the safe development of domestic coal, natural gas and nuclear power.

13. Eliminate the EPA’s ability to regulate CO2.

14. Legislate a sane and scientific definition of “species” into the Endangered Species Act.

15. Close the Federal Office of Contract Compliance and rescind the executive order that created it.

16. Close the Common Carrier Bureau of the FCC.

17. Make public sector unions illegal.

18. Consolidate the FBI, DEA, ATF, INS, TSA, the enforcement division of the SEC, FinCEN, the Secret Service, the enforcement division of the Department of Labor, and umpteen other federal cop shops into one cabinet level agency that does not report to the Department of Justice. Limit the role of Justice to representing the United States in court.

19. Repeal Obamacare, repeal the antitrust exemption for insurers, allow the sale of insurance across state lines, preempt state regulation of insurance, and create a singe federal agency to provide the oversight that 50 state agencies are now doing. Phase out Medicare and Medicaid. Implement a program to provide private health insurance to citizens who are poor, receiving unemployment compensation, etc.

20. Eliminate federal flood insurance. In the event of flooding, have the National Guard erect bleachers in safe locations to accommodate spectators who want a good laugh. Eliminate non-hurricane related flooding as a “disaster” recognized by FEMA.

21. Repeal the Fair Labor Standards Act (it is an anachronism that serves no useful purpose). Otherwise, I would probably let the Department of Labor and the NLRB survive.

64. Michael - November 7, 2010

22. Shut down all non-military operations of the Army Corp of Engineers. Put their work up for bid to companies like Bechtel.

65. David K - November 7, 2010

Some nice suggestions for Repub candidates!!
I agree that Romney – Palin – Huckabee are not viable.
Pence and Palanty will not get the mainstream Dems vote.
My choice is Ryan or Christie – either of them would put Obama on the defensive in a big way.

I only hope that the Repubs don’t come up with a recycled candidate that was unable to beat McCain.

66. Russ from Winterset - November 7, 2010


(says the guy who’s promoting Chris Christie, the MODERATE governor of New Jersey who just happened to endorse Mike Castle in the Delaware Senate Primary?)

67. Top Posts — WordPress.com - November 7, 2010

[…] The Democrats Are Toast Even if Obama wins a second term, by the time he leaves office the economy, as measured by employment (non-farm […] […]

68. Michael - November 7, 2010

Welcome to our new WordPress visitors. Thanks for visiting one of our rare serious posts that gets significant traffic.

Perhaps you will stick around for the ferret hairball blogging.

I’m not making this up. One post up. You can see a hairball that has been surgically removed from Boris the Ferret, at a cost of $1,000 paid for by Lipstick.

I know, you still think I am making this up. Just look!!!

69. Sobek - November 7, 2010

A propos of nothin at all…

70. Lipstick - November 7, 2010

Perhaps you will stick around for the ferret hairball blogging.

Well, someone had to class up this joint. . .

71. Michael - November 7, 2010

Well, someone had to class up this joint. . .

True. And we know that it wasn’t going to be Sobek.

72. Cathy - November 7, 2010


I’m with ya, Russ. Thinking of designing a ‘RINO Hunter’ shirt just for fun.

73. Sobek - November 7, 2010

“And we know that it wasn’t going to be Sobek.”

Ren & Stimpy = class.

74. elvula - November 8, 2010

What makes everyone think everything isn’t going according to plan..?

75. Bob Smith - November 8, 2010

How about Jeff Flake? He probably wouldn’t do it, but his credentials are solid.

76. Herr Morgenholz - November 8, 2010


(says the guy who’s promoting Chris Christie, the MODERATE governor of New Jersey who just happened to endorse Mike Castle in the Delaware Senate Primary?)

Your lack of any reference to skulls, chainsaws, and gerbil saliva is a welcome change.

77. Russ from Winterset - November 8, 2010

Just a suggestion, douchebag. When you go for sarcasm, go all out. Michael says dumbass things here, but he does it in a way that makes me laugh. If Michael the maestro of sarcasm, had to make your comment, he would have used Arlen Spectre instead of Chris Christie. That “takes it to the next level” while at the same time going far enough to let you know that the poster is either kidding you or seriously mentally deranged.

78. Dave in Texas - November 8, 2010


79. Herr Morgenholz - November 8, 2010

Pick a blog to fight on, fuzzlenuts.

80. Herr Morgenholz - November 8, 2010


Russ said it well, Dave: the quality of any given comment is solely at Russ’s judgment, and the only criterion is whether it makes him laugh.

So I’d stick to the balloon animals and the poopy jokes, if I were you.

81. Cathy - November 8, 2010

Hay Morgenholz.

Reread your own comments @ #45. Agree with Russ. Your communication is a tad conflicted.

Christie is doing a great job in NJ. I personally want him to stay there. But he is not a conservative on all issues. Fiscally conservative, yes, but has endorsed obvious RINOs.

Wanna be polite here, but you’re the one draggin’ toilet paper stuck to the bottom of your shoe, Bud.

82. Herr Morgenholz - November 8, 2010

Actually, I was thinking more along the lines of administrative toughness than I was politics when I mentioned Christie. Yes, he’s played party man, and that’s not inappropriate for his position.

None of it really matters, because Russ’s comment had nothing to do with Christie or RINOs or politics. It’s personal. Had the same comment been made by “BobinSacramento” he wouldn’t have said a word.

83. Cathy - November 8, 2010

And Morgenholz…

Dave’s smarter than you (and Russ too for that matter). Both of ’em a long shot. Trust me.

Let ya in on a sumpin’… Some Texans (and Iowa farmers) develop a style allowing them to choose to appear simple and charming, but watch out.

Simple and charming are their secret weapons. You won’t know our manure coated cowboy boots intellectually kicked you mercilessly ’til bruises show up two days later.

Your criticism of Russ will not cover up your own conflicted comment. I don’t know crap about you, but I see it clearly. Maybe you guys have some history but that is not the issue. Suggest you stop pointing fingers while you’re ahead.

Bravado don’t fly.

84. Herr Morgenholz - November 8, 2010

>>I don’t know crap about you

That’s quite obvious, Cathy. Wish ya well. Goodbye.

85. lauraw - November 8, 2010

Herr is a good guy. WTF?? Russ? What is going on?

86. daveintexas - November 8, 2010

>> Dave’s smarter than you (and Russ too for that matter).

Well, that’s true. I am smarter than Russ.

Hey, let’s chill and have some pie. Everybody likes pie, right?


87. Herr Morgenholz - November 8, 2010

My only apology is to Cathy, who did nothing at all to earn the dismissive tone I flung at her. That was unkind of me, and I am sorry.

88. Cathy - November 8, 2010

Morgenholz. Apology is accepted, and I too apologize for coming on strong. Like Lauraw I don’t know WTF is going on, but I trust Lauraw’s view of you and glad to hear it.

It’s obvious there’s some bad stuff going on that’s not about me, so I’ll just hose off my hip boots and hang them in the garage and go make PIE.

89. lauraw - November 8, 2010

Can’t go to any of my favorite blogs anymore without seeing some feud spilling over from elsewhere. It’s disheartening.

Whatever this disagreement is, it’s not worth breaking up friendships and associations that have been going on for years so well.

90. daveintexas - November 8, 2010


91. lauraw - November 8, 2010

You heard the man, Cath.

*snaps fingers impatiently*

92. Lipstick - November 8, 2010

And it better be Dutch Apple pie with the crumbs on top. Anyone who disagrees that this is the finest pie in the world is wrong and evil.

93. daveintexas - November 8, 2010

>> Anyone who disagrees that this is the finest pie in the world is wrong and evil.

oh no you DINT!

*grabs a pecan pie and my boxing gloves

94. Lipstick - November 8, 2010

Oh, it’s ON, Pie Boy!

95. lauraw - November 8, 2010

*raises both hands in the air in a pacifying gesture*

Friends! My friends. Please. Compose yourselves.
*throws Dave a pair of pants*

…arguing over this pie, or that pie, is beneath us and a waste of time.

Because it’s coconut custard, and my howitzer says I’m right.

*levels ginormous fucking cannon at the field*

96. daveintexas - November 8, 2010


97. Cathy - November 8, 2010

*puts on apron*

*preheats oven*

*starts chopping TEXAS PECANS!!!*

My pie! My choice!


*reconsiders Coconut Cream & Dutch Apple*

No wonder we all have conflict & control issues…
Can’t even agree on the effin’ PIE!

98. Michael - November 8, 2010

Apple is my favorite too, Lipstick, but that crumbly top crap is for wusses. It’s got to have a crust. What the hell is wrong with you?

99. Jay in Ames - November 8, 2010

No love for Cherry pie? What is the world coming to?

Stop the H8!

100. Russ from Winterset - November 8, 2010

Dave’s a mouthbreathing goober, but his assessment of pecan pie is correct.

101. skinbad - November 8, 2010

You really have to have some pie categories to intelligently speak about “favorites.” Apple is a perfectly respectable pie choice, but it contains a large amount of a healthy food group. There’s not a great deal of that attraction of the taboo “oh my gosh this is so good it has to be filling my arteries with sludge even as I’m savoring the after taste” sensation. You know, like a chocolate silk pie.

For apple, I do like the crumbly top flavor, but I can appreciate the craftsmanship of a regular crust done well.

102. Russ from Winterset - November 8, 2010

“Well, that’s true. I am smarter than Russ.”

That’s the thing about the whole “aw shucks, ayhm just a goober” act. Maybe he is, maybe he isn’t. I just don’t know. I find that it’s best to assume that Dave is a sooooper genius, just in case. That way, he won’t catch me by surprise.

103. skinbad - November 8, 2010

What I mean is, I could eat a big piece of apple pie for lunch and it would hold me until dinner–and I wouldn’t want to die. I couldn’t do that with coconut cream. Apple pie is dessert, but it’s not (apologies to Whoopi) “dessert-dessert.”

104. daveintexas - November 8, 2010

Chocolate pecan pie with bourbon is endorsed by the Tea Party.

105. Donald Rumsfeld - November 8, 2010

I think what my colleague, Mr. Skinbad, is trying to say here is that you go to dinner with the pie you have, not the pie you wish you had.

106. Lipstick - November 8, 2010

Apple is my favorite too, Lipstick, but that crumbly top crap is for wusses. It’s got to have a crust. What the hell is wrong with you?

The crumbly top ensures that when you stick your fork into it the filling doesn’t smoosh out the sides like it does with a crust on top. Doof.

107. Russ from Winterset - November 8, 2010

That’s why you perforate the crust with the tines of your fork BEFORE you use the fork to slice off a bite.

108. lauraw - November 8, 2010

If you read my comment closely, Mr. Skinbad, I think you will find that I said coconut CUSTARD, not coconut cream.

Custards and puddings occupy the very pinnacle of achievement in pie science and sophisticated dessert thingamabobs.

109. skinbad - November 8, 2010

To be honest, I don’t know what a custard is.

110. Cathy - November 8, 2010

To be honest, I don’t know what a custard is

It’s not the guy who made his Last Stand.

Custard involves EGGS!!

Sorry Laura, I said ‘cream’ instead of ‘custard’ in earlier comment. I like custard but could sorta take or leave the coconut.

111. lauraw - November 8, 2010

Custard is eggs. Flan, you know. Creme brulee. Pudding.


112. skinbad - November 8, 2010

We had a frozen custard place near the ol’ homestead. It was good, but it was right in there with good ice cream or frozen yogurt IMO. They were all winners to me.

113. Retired Geezer - November 8, 2010

*throws Dave a pair of pants Panties (and/or Assless Chaps>*


114. Lipstick - November 8, 2010

Well, she threw him what she had, not what Dave really wanted…

115. daveintexas - November 8, 2010

I’m still, still waiting for a pair of panties to fly my way, instead of at that GODDAM drummer.

116. geoff - November 8, 2010

I’m still, still waiting for a pair of panties to fly my way, instead of at that GODDAM drummer.

Flying drummers are a real hazard.

117. Sobek - November 8, 2010

*nails recipe for chocolate pudding pie to the church doors*

Here I stand. I can do no other.

118. daveintexas - November 8, 2010

is it in Latin?

119. wiserbud - November 8, 2010

Is cheesecake considered a pie? ‘Cause I really like cheesecake…

120. daveintexas - November 8, 2010


121. wiserbud - November 8, 2010


How’s your diet going, tough guy?

122. Sobek - November 8, 2010


123. Retired Geezer - November 9, 2010

The BSU Broncos / Texas ‘Make a Wish’ Connection:

Bring tissues.


124. The Underground Conservative - November 9, 2010

Mitch Daniels’ apparent endorsement of a VAT killed him. What part of no new taxes or tax increases don’t they get? Especially a VAT, which killed Europe’s economies.

Now if Daniels means the Faix Tax, that merits a discussion … as long as the 16th Amendment is repealed and there is no federal income tax.

125. xbradtc - November 9, 2010

Glenn Reynolds is gonna check into this place and ask himself why he wasted an Instalache on a friggin’ pie fight.

and I gotta say, I love all pies, but I’m going to stand by Sobek on the theological soundness of chocolate pudding pie.

126. BrewFan - November 9, 2010

The Underground Conservative has the best avatar. EVAH!

127. lauraw - February 22, 2013

You still agree with your own post, Michael?

Michael - February 22, 2013

Yes. That’s why I still donate a few bucks to the Senate Conservatives Fund instead of moving to Belize.

128. geoff - February 22, 2013

All your points about him not being able to restore the employment situation were, and continue to be, true. It’s just the Svengali thing he has that we didn’t account for.

129. Michael - February 23, 2013

Plus, the Republicans were inept, and once again divided between the old guard quasi-statists and the true conservatives.

130. Michael - February 23, 2013

It’s easy to get discouraged, but there’s good news. The Tea Party won an important victory by focussing on the exposed jugular of the establishment political system — Republican primaries. That’s why guys like Boehner can’t quite control the House today and easily cut a deal with Obama on issues like sequestration. Too many Republican members are way more concerned about the primary than the general election. The Senate Conservatives Fund (started by Jim Demint, a personal hero of mine) is attempting to do the same thing in the upper chamber.

131. Michael - February 23, 2013

No doubt, Geoff, that Obama and his team are masterful politicians. But Obama can yelp all wants about gun crime, immigration and global warming to cater to his base. It’s all misdirection. The facts on the ground remain exceedingly grim. His administration has engineered a pathetic recovery, systemic high unemployment, massive amounts of debt, and a health care debacle, all of which are highly skewed towards harming (1) minorities and (2) young people, the exact constituencies he energized to put him in the White House and stay there.

Sooner or later, this is going to catch up to the Dems. My own kids, who both live in liberal enclaves (Boulder, Boston) are starting to realize that they have been screwed, and will never have the opportunities that I did to move from a trailer park to Tony Romo’s neighborhood. Those kids have been on vacation all over the world. They both earned college degrees and graduated with no debt. Now they are approaching 30 and still struggling to pay the rent. The prospect of owning a home is remote.

I noted with amusement Obama’s summit with unhappy black leaders this week, convened so that they could complain about high black unemployment. Obama talked about a “ladder of opportunity” for those who strive to move up. He seemed to be clueless that the others in the room don’t want a ladder. They have spent their entire careers agitating for an escalator.

132. Michael - February 23, 2013

I should have made this a post: “Pythagorus Says The Democrats Are Still Toast.”

133. geoff - February 23, 2013

His administration has engineered a pathetic recovery, systemic high unemployment, massive amounts of debt, and a health care debacle

All true. But when he says “our economic policies have worked,” or “we don’t have a spending problem,” his followers forget reality and just nod their heads.

Obama: My policies worked!!

Critics: Then how come the problem isn’t fixed?

Obama: That’s the GOP’s fault for not cooperating!

Followers: *nod in unison*

– Apply to any policy area –

134. Michael - February 23, 2013

Conservatives need a leader, not a “nice guy” or policy wonk, who can connect with people.

That’s why this site was way ahead of the curve when I tried to nominate Dave in Texas for President back in 2008. If people had only listened to us, we would be fat, dumb and happy right now.

135. Michael - February 23, 2013

I also note that my early and repeated advocacy for the conquest of Canada has proven to be remarkably prescient, given that the development of fracking technology has unlocked the energy potential of an area which should be a territory of the U.S.

Even if we have to tolerate Canada, fracked oil has the potential to be the Next Big Thing which could have favorable consequences comparable to the development of the internet. The prospect of an energy-independant North America is awesome, whether you consider it from an economic, military, or political perspective (it’s a fantasy for China, India, Europe and Japan). No wonder that the Chinese are lobbying to get the Keystone pipeline redirected to a Pacific port, and have offered to pay for it.

136. Michael - February 23, 2013

Hello, this is Michael. All of the previous comments in my name were actually written by Wickedpinto, who somehow hacked into my account.

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