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Killing Economic Recovery, Obama-Style July 21, 2011

Posted by geoff in News.

The Initial Unemployment Claims data for last week was released by the Department of Labor today. Claims were up . . . “unexpectedly.”

While unemployment is usually considered to be a lagging economic indicator, I believe that the initial claims data gives you an up-to-date measure of what’s currently happening in the employment market. But it doesn’t help if you don’t look at the long-term trends, which the media never does. So here’s a chart:

As you can see, we’ve been through 4 different periods of improvement and stalls. Right now we’re in the middle of some doldrums, which is delaying our recovery indefinitely. You may wonder, “What happened?” “Why does the rate of improvement keep faltering?”

Well, I’ve got me some theories:

Yeah, I’m blaming the latest malaise on the White House’s budget release in February. It is a terrible budget, with huge deficits through 2011. In fact the deficit never drops below $600 billion.

My supposition is that employers reacted to that bleak budget by slowing hiring, postponing our recovery by ??????.

You may ask: “What sort of Initial Unemployment Claims number are we looking for?” Well, I done went and plotted that up, too.

Before the recession, we were between 300 and 350K. Now we’re between 400K and 450K. So if we can drop another 100,000, we’ll be back to normal. If we’d continued improvement in the last trend (in green on the earlier charts), that would have taken about 8 months.

Now? Who knows?


1. Mitchell - July 21, 2011

Mmm hmm. No black dots on these here charts. RACIST!!

2. geoff - July 21, 2011

I was floating down the Salt River recently with a liberal friend of mine, and he said, “I have to admit it. I cast a racist vote for Obama. I voted for him because he was black.” He then told me that he would never vote for Obama again.

Very nice to hear.

3. Cathy - July 21, 2011

Geoff done let go his pent up need to chart!

Woo Hoo! Let the charts flow!

Because of Obama, we have new definitions for two words…

Historic = any piddly-assed little thing done by Obama that the media wants to focus on and spin as greatness.

Unexpected = Obama’s failures that anyone with a fifth grade education could clearly determine would happen, but the media refuses to stick on Obama

4. Lipstick - July 22, 2011

Everybody has insisted on calling this a “recovery”, e.g., “the recovery took a hit…bla bla bla.

I see no recovery, only malaise.

5. Michael - July 22, 2011

Movie Review:

Payback starring Mel Gibson is really bad. I don’t know how this turkey got on my Netflix queue.


6. daveintexas - July 23, 2011

It was ok.

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