Lessons Learned — White House Wary of Jobs Predictions September 13, 2011Posted by Michael in Ducks.
Jeebers, is it possible that the White House got stung by an obscure little blog like this with charts by Geoff that went viral, got repeatedly linked by Ace, Instapundit and Hot Air, and eventually made it to conventional media and RNC talking points?
Maybe. Could be Instapundit has a point when he talks about the “Army of Davids.”
The White House seems to have learned their lesson.
Members of Congress now have in-hand the full text of President Obama’s jobs plan, but one key ingredient is missing: how many jobs the White House expects it to create.
If you ask the White House, that is by design.
“I think there’s a danger of ever predicting unemployment rates, because… there’s a lot of things that determine what the unemployment rate is and will be,” Office of Management and Budget Director Jack Lew told reporters in a briefing Monday.
I think you’re right about that, Jack. It’s pretty clear by now that throwing good money after bad with another federal spending binge, and more debt, is not going to help. You really know that, Jack, don’t you? If you don’t exactly get this, I can give you Geoff’s email address.
The White House learned that first hand after the incorrect January 2009 predictions of then-president-elect Obama’s advisors were revisited in the press with a fury. Mr. Obama’s economic advisors at the time; Christina Romer and Jared Bernstein, both of whom later worked for President Obama, predicted that passage of a stimulus bill for would keep the unemployment rate below 8%. The Recovery Act passed. The unemployment rate currently stands at 9.1%.
Actually, those predictions were not “revisited in the press with a fury” until long after the charts by Geoff had become an internet staple.
Here’s a song for Christina Romer and Jared Bernstein, the simplistic Keynesian multiplier effects in their model, and all those shovel ready jobs that predictably did not happen when confronted with the reality of the federal procurement process and politics: