Innocent Bystanders

Do the Math, AP November 30, 2012

The AP puts a nice spin on the CBO’s extension of unemployment benefits report with this cheery title:

Report: Extending jobless benefits creates jobs

Extending the current level of long-term unemployment benefits for another year would add 300,000 jobs to the economy, according to a report from the Congressional Budget Office.

But everything has a price, and extending those benefits will cost us a cool $30 billion. For one year.

The analysis released Wednesday from the nonpartisan office estimates that keeping jobless benefits would cost the government $30 billion. But it would also lead to more spending by the unemployed, boosting demand for goods and services and creating new jobs.

Hint to AP reporters: there’s this cool mathematical trick called “division,” and this “division” can tell us how much money it will cost us per job. And the answer is….

$100,000

But it gets worse.

That 300,000 jobs number only applies to the fourth quarter of 2013, and it’s that high due to some sort of time period futzing the CBO did. Their real rule of thumb is that for every $1,000,000 of unemployment benefits, we’ll get 6 jobs. So, once again using this mysterious “division” legerdemain, we can figure out what we should expect, on average, as opposed to their cherry-picked 4th Quarter. And that answer is……

$167,000

Which means that on average we’ll get an extra 180K jobs in 2013. Which is what we’d get from one decent month of job creation.

Of course these jobs are a bonus – after all, the primary goal of unemployment benefits is to keep people fed. But the economic stimulus portion of unemployment insurance seems vastly overrated. Especially when the CBO admits it hasn’t included the cost of servicing the additional debt, and they never include the impact of government borrowing on the availability of capital for private enterprise.

The humanitarian argument for extending unemployment benefits is fairly strong, but the economic stimulus argument is laughable.

Yif Loves Him Some Bread November 29, 2012

The Daily Caller brings us Yif, a Taiwanese magician:

Taiwanese magician “Yif Magic” makes bread grow out of his hands. French croissants and baguettes, no less. It’s really fun to watch if you aren’t initially creeped out by the image of baked goods shooting out from his limbs.

(Head to 2:45 for the beginning of the bread act in general. Of particular note, 4:20 marks the beginning of the signature trick in which Yif materializes a massive baguette from his hand.)

If you’re in a hurry, just skip to 4:20 and turn down the overly dramatic background music.

Gratuitous “Babes at a Chinese Car Show” Post November 29, 2012

The Chinese know how to run an auto show. And how to properly report on well-run auto shows:

“Attractive Beauties at Auto Exhibitions”

[Many more photos at the link]

Evan Sayet Has a Book Out November 29, 2012

The KinderGarden of Eden

If you don’t remember who he is, take a gander at his talk from 5 years ago:

Getting Them de Tocqueville Blues November 29, 2012

Ultimaratioregis over at xBradTC’s blog reminds us of de Tocqueville’s observations from nearly 180 years ago:

(Niall) Ferguson contrasts the American and French Revolutions, not fifteen years apart, yet so fundamentally different in character and outcome. For this, he evokes none other than Alexis de Tocqueville:

There were, Tocqueville argues, five fundamental differences between the two societies, and therefore between the two revolutions they produced. First, France was increasingly centralized, whereas America was a naturally federal state, with a lively provincial associational life and civil society. Second, the French tended to elevate the general will above the letter of the law, a tendency resisted by America’s powerful legal profession. Third, the French revolutionaries attacked religion and the church that upheld it, whereas American sectarianism provided a bulwark against the pretensions of secular authorities. Fourth, the French ceded too much power to irresponsible intellectuals, whereas in America practical men reigned supreme. Finally, and most important to Tocqueville, the French put equality above liberty.

There’s more in his post at xBrad’s blog, if you’re up for some serious melancholy.

Worst Phishing Attempt Ever November 25, 2012

Ms. Notafraid is just not in the same league as the average Nigerian fraudster. Amazingly, this email actually made it through my spam filter.

Sun, November 25, 2012 10:07:55 AM
UNDP Foundation Grant.
From: roxanne.notafraid
To:

[My name is missing!]

UNDP Foundation Grant.

UNDP Grant Donation FORWARD THIS MAIL TO (ban.kimoon23@att.net) FOR PROOF OF CLAIM

You have been awarded a Grant Sum of £500,000.00 GBP (Five Hundred Thousand Pounds) from the United Nations Development programme (UNDP) with Qualification numbers (UNF/FBF-826-1619 G-924-94).

You are to Forward this email to the United Nations for claims procedure.

Mr. Ban ki-moon
E-mail: ban.kimoon23@att.net

You might receive this message in your spam or junk folder depends on your web host.

On behalf of the Board,
Yours faithfully,
Roxanne Notafraid
United Nations Foundation UK.

Ban Ki-Moon is the current Secretary General of the United Nations, which means this grant award must be legit. Anybody want to claim it on my behalf?

The Breasts British Women Envy the Most November 20, 2012

Holly Willoughby’s:

Just thought you should know.