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Graham Sells His Party Down the River June 17, 2013

Posted by geoff in News.

Lindsay Graham tells us that Republicans are doomed if we don’t pass the immigration reform bill:

Republicans are “in a demographic death spiral” and will fail in their effort to win the presidency if the party blocks an immigration overhaul, a leading GOP senator said Sunday.

I refer the Senator to this chart from the Pew Hispanic Research Center:


Now, I may not be a squishy GOP senator who presumably knows a thing or two about elections, but I think I can read a graph. And that there graph says that the best we’ve ever done with Hispanic voters is 2 out of 5 votes, while the average is more like 2 out of 6 votes.

In the last election we got 2 out of 8 votes.

Let’s assume that half of the 11 million-strong illegal immigrant population is eligible for citizenship under the proposed law. If you take the average voting percentage, the Democrats accrue a 1.8 million vote advantage. If it’s anything like the last election, it’s a 2.4 million vote advantage.

The last four elections were settled by an average of 4.5 million votes (yeah, I know that’s the popular vote and not the electoral college results). That makes the 2 million votes Graham wants to hand to the Dems look pretty significant.

We may well be in a “demographic death spiral,” but I see no reason to accelerate it.


1. geoff - June 17, 2013

Here’s another estimate of how big an impact this bill will have on US demographics:

The 1,077-page bill is expected to provide amnesty to at least 11 million illegal immigrants, bring in another 20 million people over the next decade, accelerate the future inflow of immigrants’ relatives, increase the supply of agricultural laborers and boost the annual inflow of blue-collar and professional guest-workers above 1 million.

If we really get 30 million people, that’s 10 million extra votes for Democrats, even at the average level of support.

2. thirdnews - June 17, 2013

The 1,077 pages have hidden treats and I’d look for the Lindsay Graham gift tag

3. OBF - June 18, 2013

Question. If Mitt Romney’s 27% of the Hispanic vote was cut in half how many votes that equate to? My curiosity is if the dems pick up 2 million votes after the bill passes how many votes would the Repubs lose if the bill doesn’t pass?

Just wondering.

4. Carlos - June 18, 2013

Got news for ya, Geoff – Grahamnesty sold the Republican party down the river at least two decades ago. I can’t think of a single important issue he’s been on the “conservative” side consistently, and few he’s even had the same side on for more than a term (except, of course, granting amnesty to criminal aliens). Not even guns.

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