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China is Here, Mr. Burton July 8, 2014

Posted by geoff in News.

Back in 2006 I spent some time pointing out the perils of China’s rapid military buildup, and noted that their strategy was to drive the US out of Asia and establish a Chinese hegemony. And of course, first on the list of tasty treats for the Chinese hegemonists would be Taiwan.

We’ve had a lot of discussions about the weakness of China’s economy and demographics, but I was never convinced that those were enough to stop China’s inexorable march forward. And now it appears that they weren’t – China thinks it has arrived:

The bad news first. The People’s Republic of China now believes it can successfully prevent the United States from intervening in the event of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan or some other military assault by Beijing.

…Beijing believes it can attack Taiwan or another neighbor while also bloodlessly deterring U.S. intervention. It would do so by deploying such overwhelmingly strong military forces — ballistic missiles, aircraft carriers, jet fighters, and the like — that Washington dare not get involved.

The knock-on effects of deterring America could be world-changing. “Backing away from our commitments to protect Taiwan, Japan, or the Philippines would be tantamount to ceding East Asia to China’s domination,” Roger Cliff, a fellow at the Atlantic Council, said at the same U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission hearing on Jan. 30.

The author of the article claims that China is underestimating the importance of our nuclear submarines, and that may be so. Or maybe not.

In any case, this is part of China’s long-term strategy. The question is not if they’ll pull the trigger, but when. It’s just a question of their impatience vs. the perceived cost of making a move.

Which is why it makes a lot of sense for them to move before the current administration is replaced. I’m thinking 2016 will be ideal for them.


1. Jimbro - July 8, 2014

After reading the link about American submarines and Chinese hydrophones I’m thinking the underwater drone concept might be valuable. I recall reading about drones that can submerge and wait until they are needed. Looking for a link I could only find stories about the missing Malaysian airliner.

“…if they’ll pull the trigger, but when” sums up the whole topic I’m afraid.

2. lauraw - July 9, 2014

While trying to find something else, I ran across this old flame thread featuring Michael, Geoff, Sean M, and Monty from way back in 2005.
Starts off slow but gets so, so, funny.


3. geoff - July 9, 2014

Almost a decade ago. Wow.

Always wanted to hear about Monty’s time in the military. I hope it went better than I suspect it did.

4. Michael - July 9, 2014

Heh, I remember that thread. I had to catch up because work kept me from joining until it was well underway. I was proud of “odd little human doughnut.”

5. lauraw - July 10, 2014

I had no memory of how foul Geoff could be. That was delightful.

6. Michael - July 10, 2014

It is amazing how long it took back then just to get over 100 comments, and I would consider that an active thread to be checked on a regular basis.

7. lauraw - July 10, 2014

No kidding! Ace’s comments sections are so fast now that I can scarcely keep track of them.

8. Retired Geezer - July 10, 2014

yeah you hit refresh and you have to scroll up 25 comments to get back to where you were.

9. Lipstick - July 11, 2014

Yep, I agree, Geoff. China will never have such a feckless president as this one to roll over. It is certain that Obama will do nothing to get his hands dirty protecting capitalist Taiwan against communist China.

He favors the muslims and the commies, the ideologies closest to his heart.

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