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Not Going to Say It This Time… March 30, 2020

Posted by geoff in COVID-19, News.

Nope, I’m not going to express any optimism whatsoever. You hear me Fates? No optimism here; just bleak, unrelenting depression.

Even though Worldometer put this chart out (cases per day in the US):


…and this one… (deaths per day in the US)

But I’ve been toyed with too many times – tempt me not, Fates!

You’ll hear no upbeat take from me!


1. lauraw - March 30, 2020

“The way in which we code deaths in our country is very generous in the sense that all the people who die in hospitals with the coronavirus are deemed to be dying of the coronavirus.

“On re-evaluation by the National Institute of Health, only 12 per cent of death certificates have shown a direct causality from coronavirus, while 88 per cent of patients who have died have at least one pre-morbidity – many had two or three,” he says.

In other words, Italy is FOS about their numbers. Every terminal patient who happened to test C19+ is getting lumped in as killed by it. So, all their terminal cancer patients, all their other pneumonia cases, etc, all of those deaths got dumped into the C19 pile.

If you remove the 88% of cases, their death rate falls in line with the rest of the world’s.

Found via this guy here: youtu.be/gXlHXmfDDnc

2. geoff - March 30, 2020

Should have mentioned that the charts above are for the US.

3. geoff - March 30, 2020

There, I’ve clumsily fixed it.

4. geoff - March 30, 2020

I hope that’s true, lw. The Imperial College guy said 2/3 of the projected casualties in the UK would have died within a year regardless of the virus, which lines up with what you’re saying about Italy.

I wonder if that differs from the way they handle influenza stats.

5. Cathy - March 30, 2020

Thanks for the additional clarification. Been thinking about people who are fragile, elderly, and struggle with health challenges.

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