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The Pandemic Growth Factor April 6, 2020

Posted by geoff in News.

The burning question we all face is: Is the pandemic situation improving or getting worse?

And here’s your answer:

This is a plot of the growth factor (basically current day deaths divided by previous day deaths) of coronavirus deaths worldwide (data taken from Worldometer). If the number is above 1, it means the death rate is accelerating; below one it’s decelerating. At a growth factor of 1, the death rate is constant (i.e., the number of deaths today is the same as yesterday). At 0, deaths are 0.

There are two plots, one is the raw data and the other is a 5-day smoothing of the raw data. The smoothing helps suppress the noise in the data.

As you can see from the smoothed data, we’ve been on a steady downward trend for 3 weeks, largely due to the leveling off of deaths in Italy and Spain.

Hopefully this means that the world is getting things under control, and that soon the death rate will begin dropping consistently.


1. Car in - April 6, 2020

I like charts!

2. lauraw - April 6, 2020

Would be great to see one of these just for the US.

3. geoff - April 6, 2020

Mebbe tomorrow.

4. Sobek - April 6, 2020

I’m digging the charts, too. But if that’s a worldwide chart, and if China’s numbers are garbage, then it seems the whole chart is suspect.

5. Pandemic Growth Factor for the US | Innocent Bystanders - April 7, 2020

[…] put in a request* for a US-centric version of yesterday’s chart on death growth rates. So here it […]

6. geoff - April 7, 2020

Since China’s numbers are trivial (they’re claiming there are fewer than 10 deaths per day), you can consider it as a pretty fair representation of the world sans China.

7. Sobek - April 7, 2020

That makes sense

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