The Unmysterious Unemployment Rate May 19, 2009
Posted by geoff in News.trackback
An earlier post, which contained a plot of actual unemployment vs. what was predicted by Obama’s economic team, caused quite a stir in the blogosphere. But apologists and doubters had one universal reaction:
“How do you know that it wouldn’t have been worse without the stimulus?”
The answer is very simple: because the stimulus hasn’t happened yet. And everybody knows that. But I don’t think people understand how true it is. It is this true:
We’ve barely spent anything so far, and everything we have spent (inset graph) has been devoted to minimizing suffering via social services, not stimulating the economy. So the fact that the unemployment numbers have increased far beyond the administration’s predictions are unsurprising.
Nobody would claim that a $787 billion stimulus package would never create any jobs – eventually I’m sure that it will. But as a package meant to stave off the increase of unemployment in the near term, the stimulus has been a failure.
[Note: This post does not address the effects of the tax relief provisions of the ARRA.]
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Innocent Bystanders 
IIRC, most of the Porkulus isn’t suppose to be released until sometime next year. What good is that going to do for current unemployment?
Also, I have noticed the hosannas that the decline may have stopped/slowed down/bottomed out, as if that is something to be happy about.
I guess “flat is the new up”.
Oh, this is rich as well.
I don’t think that’s correct: I found weekly reports online for every agency that had spent stimulus money (DHHS, DoEd, DoL, and USDA).
^D’oh. Oh well.
DinTX hasn’t spent any yet.
BUT I WILL!
[…] The Unmysterious Unemployment Rate « Innocent Bystanders – May 19, […]
^
Eventually, Geoff, you are going to have to accept the fact that the links to that chart will stop. You can’t just keep linking yourself.
You can’t just keep linking yourself.
Recursion doesn’t work here?
Did Geoff mention that we met for popcorn and slurpies last weekend?
He’s got a lovely family, btw. Very sweet and well behaved kids.
No, he did not. I got him to buy me booze, Deb. Sounds like you weren’t really on your game.
I have a gift. My bladder is a finely tuned organ. I always have to pee just before the check arrives.
Well, dayum. We visited the the chocolate shop, too. You mean I could have gotten out of there with him footing the bill?
Michael bought a bunch of us dinner at the sports bar. Best bacon cheeseburger I’ve ever had.
A Nice Deb Sighting! Yay!
Did Geoff mention that we met for popcorn and slurpies last weekend?
NiceDeb and her euphemisms. It’s so cute.
Sounds like you weren’t really on your game.
I wasn’t on my game. I was a zombie the entire weekend – too much driving and no sleep. NiceDeb and the third of her spawn she brought with were a bright spot amid a never-ending list of places to be.
Aw, thanks, Geoff. We’ll have to do it again next time you’re in town. Our nine year olds certainly clicked.
Dang G, there you go getting all graphic again…I read some self righteous bean counters trying to bust your (indirectly) chops over at Outside the Beltway which btw were very late linkers.
Its too bad Steve_hb cant go over and pay them a wit visit. Nice thing yall have here. The re-linked sex toy party neighbor post slayed my wife and I…well the comments.
^Shirlena?
Too many recent comments. Go with 10.
Now go with 7.
Yeesh, short attention span or sumpin? No less than 10.
Not to worry. When the hyperinflation kicks in around November of 2010, unemployment will be the least of our worries!
I just like to order people around, geoff.
Now change the font to Courier.
12’s my final offer.
YOU ARE NOT THE BOSS OF ME!
Actually, I’m seriously embarrassed that I just today figured out that the widget could be adjusted. The default of 5 was never enough. People could comment on an older thread, and it would scroll off Recent Comments before anyone would notice and get ignored.
The only reason I noticed that these widgets have options is because I have had to temporarily retire the Top Clicks widget. It had an incredibly obscene link on it (thanks Eddiebear for the emailed tip) that was originally contributed by Feisty in that old RWS/Steve thread that we were recently rereading. It worried me that someone might hit that link at work.
I’ll bring Top Clicks back when that link doesn’t show up anymore (and I deleted it from the original thread, so don’t go looking for it Brewfan.)
*sigh*
Site Administration is a thankless task.
Our Flag Counter is stuck on 128 countries. I blame the fucking standoffish Bhutanese. Did I not personally invite them on the main page to show up? Those pricks must have a computer somewhere.
I know, I can make myself feel better by going to The Hostages and looking at their Flag Counter.
Haaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaah!
One interesting thing about the Flag Counter is that as the days go by, the percentage of U.S. traffic is actually gradually declining. I think that’s because Geoff’s chart skewed the mix because that chart drew in a huge amount of U.S. traffic. As time goes by, the ongoing foreign hits on stuff like the Hello Kitty pic start to change the mix. Our Hello Kitty pic, btw, is currently undergoing a revival. It’s currently on the first page of Google Images search results.
But the fucking Bhutanese are too snooty to show an interest in Hello Kitty.
Awww, but I like to visit my own site through here so that I’m a Top Click.
(Just kidding; I don’t actually do that.)
I have wondered about H2 Michael. While we may get 3k hits a day, I have come to the conclusion it is only 12 of us morons hitting refresh 250 times a day.
It is interesting.
Mrs. Geezer and I met another online friend today in Reno. She is a delightful lady who plays Guild Wars with me.
We met at this place.
http://www.washoecounty.us/parks/arboretum/labyrinthGarden.htm
I always thought a Labyrinth was like a maze.
Not so.
Tomorrow we’re going to meet a couple of guy who I play Rainbow Six Vegas 2 online in Xbox Live.
If you’re in Fresno, California and you see a
Bald, 400 pound, Black Lesbianguy in a Hawaiian shirt, with incredibly white legs, wearing the ONLY orange Boise State Broncos cap in the state…. that would be me.While we may get 3k hits a day, I have come to the conclusion it is only 12 of us morons hitting refresh 250 times a day.
I remember years ago when Ace was relatively new, and he was wondering aloud in a comment thread if his site was just twelve of us (he named about 12 of us, including me) compulsively hitting F5 all day long.
It probably was.
By the way, Vmax, if you install something like the SiteMeter you can distinguish between simple hits and visits, and more easily see where traffic comes from. WordPress does not do this. It’s useful information about the reach of the site.
IB’s traffic stats don’t really mean all that much anymore. Just depends on whether we have hot pics in the archives that Google Images has picked up. Those pics wear out after awhile. Our shark pic was huge for a long time, but it’s dead now. Same with Jessica Alba. Amsterdam Hookers is not that productive any more.
Other than that, it’s just us commenters and our cadre of lurkers, and the occasional big post like Geoff’s chart.
(thanks Eddiebear for the emailed tip)
*looks down*
I fail to see Orange Crocks, Batman.
HUMPFH!
Next time I’ll just advertise the gay porn link over at H2.
That should be good for some laughs.
Oops.
Tip came from Pupster, not Eddie. Sorry.
What did I miss?
Gay Porn, Eddie. Gay Porn.
Though you probably already had it saved to your ‘special’ thumb-drive.
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