Innocent Bystanders

Vacationing in Estes Park December 30, 2016

…and trying to ignore current events and the like.

Hope your holidays were, and continue to be, outstanding!

Ohhhh…Eff Me December 26, 2016

I didn’t link to Thomas Sowell too much, because it seemed to me that most of his material was more philosophical and not directed at current events.

But I really appreciated his work, and I’ll miss him.

To His Koi Ambassadress December 26, 2016

Y’all have known for many years about my penchant for Asian-type media.

And yet you still let me post here.

So let this be a lesson to you: witness the remarkably viral Koi Dance:

How viral, you ask? So viral that among all the obligatory copycat videos, even the staff of our Japanese embassy (including US Ambassador Caroline Kennedy) did a version:

I don’t normally have much use for the Kennedy clan, but that was pretty funny.

President Obama Says Nothing Will Change When He Leaves Office December 26, 2016

From The Daily Caller:

Barack Obama said the first thing he’ll do once he’s out of office is take time to think about himself.

President Obama Gets One Right December 26, 2016

President Obama addressed the troops at Marine Corps Base Hawaii yesterday:

“I just want all of you to know that it has been the privilege of my life to serve as your commander-in-chief,” Obama said during a visit to the base with his wife, Michelle.

This is true, but it’s something that everybody already knows, especially the military. Obama mansplains it as if it’s a surprise that being granted the responsibility for the lives of American service members is a unique privilege.

Only a surprise to him.

So I Made a Thing December 25, 2016

Me vs. Krugman December 23, 2016

Y’all may remember those crazy days of yore when I made a little graph that we fondly called “The Chart.” It plotted the unemployment rates predicted by the Obama administration vs. what actually happened, showing that the “Stimulus” was not working in any meaningful way. It went viral back in 2009, so yay.

But after a year of updating that plot, I realized that the unemployment statistics had become meaningless, so I made my own version of the stats to give us a better feel for the real health of employment. It plots full-time employment divided by the “civilian non-institutional population” (basically a measure of the size of the workforce). I’ve been updating the new chart for over 6 years – here’s the latest:

Meanwhile, the president and Dems crow about the jobs added during his two terms:

And here’s Paul Krugman’s version:

So there’s a disconnect there: my chart says that things still suck, but according to the president and Paul Krugman, things should be peachy.

I think most of us would agree that in our personal experience, things are still not peachy.

Of course there are always subtleties hidden in the data that simple charts like those above (including mine) cannot capture. But I have to say that my chart is far more indicative of the real employment situation than Krugman’s or the Dem’s charts. I say this because the metric I use excludes part-time employment, and captures the effect of population growth and those who have fallen out of the job market.

And now it turns out that both Krugman’s and the Dem’s charts are a complete waste of time; just propaganda charts with no relevance to the actual health of employment in this country.

Why? Because part-time jobs is why:

Fast forward 6 years, when a report by Harvard and Princeton economists Lawrence Katz and Alan Krueger, confirms exactly what we warned. In their study, the duo show that from 2005 to 2015, the proportion of Americans workers engaged in what they refer to as “alternative work” soared during the Obama era, from 10.7% in 2005 to 15.8% in 2015. Alternative, or “gig” work is defined as “temporary help agency workers, on-call workers, contract company workers, independent contractors or freelancers”, and is generally unsteady, without a fixed paycheck and with virtually no benefits.

…

Krueger, who until 2013 was also the top White House economist serving as chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers under Obama, was “surprised” by the finding.

Quoted by quartz, he said “We find that 94% of net job growth in the past decade was in the alternative work category,” said Krueger. “And over 60% was due to the [the rise] of independent contractors, freelancers and contract company workers.” In other words, nearly all of the 10 million jobs created between 2005 and 2015 were not traditional nine-to-five employment.

So Paul Krugman is spouting partisan clap-trap, as usual.

And my chart?

Well, I don’t mean to brag*, but…

*Totally lied right there

Cheery Xmas News: You Ain’t Gonna Retire as Early As You Thought You Were December 23, 2016

Two days ago the Congressional Budget Office released its analysis of future Social Security revenues and spending. Here’s their projection:

The good news is that you can set aside all those mailings from retirement villages: I don’t think we’re going to have to worry about retiring for quite some time. As of 2029 all reserves will be exhausted and benefits will have to be reduced by 29% to make outlays match revenues.

Don’t believe me? Here’s what the CBO said:

Under current law, CBO projects, Social Security’s trust funds, considered together, will be exhausted in 2029. In that case, benefits in 2030 would need to be reduced by 29 percent from the scheduled amounts.

Having adamantly opposed social security reform efforts, I’m sure that the Democrats will be only too happy to propose a 40% tax increase for social security. That would mean that both you and your employer would be taxed at 10.5%.

Makes me long for the Bush plan.

Red Alert: UK Periodical Engages In Shameless Ribald Puns December 22, 2016

It’s Dick Joke Day Thursday

Pretty well done overall, but I have to detract style points for this:

Pensioner pleases neighbours with his massive flashing cock

The author- and no kidding, his name is Richard- gives his all, straightaway in the headline. But then he just keeps repetitively hammering it home.

Slow down, man. Take your time. Work up to it, throw in a little variety, you know?

December 2016 Export Report December 18, 2016

I didn’t get around to updating the exports graph a couple of weeks ago when the latest data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis was released. So here it is today:

Almost two years after the president failed to keep his promise to double exports within 5 years, he still isn’t even halfway there. In fact, he isn’t even a third of the way there.