The Unemployment Prediction for July August 6, 2009
Posted by geoff in News.trackback
Tomorrow the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the unemployment numbers for July. But in the past couple of months I’ve preceded the actual numbers release with an update based on the Bloomberg survey of economists. They’re normally not too far off, though the May prediction was off by quite a bit.
This month they’ve predicted an unemployment rate of 9.6% ==> only 0.1% above the previous month. The real number is likely to be influenced heavily by whether people stay in the “discouraged worker” category or come back into the “unemployed” category. Last month’s number was suppressed by that effect, so this month I personally am looking for something more along the lines of 9.8%.
In any case, here is what The Chart looks like with the Bloomberg prediction:
Not too bad, though it’s striking how the numbers are following the w/o Stimulus curve. It’s almost like the economy is recovering independent of the Stimulus.
Tomorrow the real numbers will come out, and I’m in addition to The Chart, I’m going to plot up private vs. government employment changes (per Michael’s suggestion), and the number of discouraged workers (per numerous suggestions).
Background info under the fold:
*As always, this chart was constructed by overlaying the actual economic data on top of the chart made by Obama’s economic team to market his stimulus plan.
**Here are some other posts on the subject:
- The percentage of private-employed workers is steadily decreasing, meaning that the burden of supporting government workers is increasing. How long can this trend continue?
- The June numbers.
- Mark Zandi (Moody’s Economy.com) kind of agreed with the Obama team’s projection back in January. But his predictions weren’t much better.
- Saying that “the recession is worse than anybody thought” is a tired old tune
- Everybody did not “guess wrong” on the stimulus package
- The corrected chart for May.
- The predicted numbers for May from a few days ago, with some thoughts on why unemployment is worse than expected even without the stimulus package (and a hearty discussion in the comments on proper graphing)
- A look at the stimulus package spending – how late it is, and how little thus far has been devoted to job creation (it’s basically gone to pay off states’ social services debts)
- The April numbers
- The original post on the subject, noting that criticisms of the stimulus package may not have been motivated by racism after all.
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Innocent Bystanders 
Background info? I have to study now, in order to read/understand the graph? Dude.
Background info? I have to study now, in order to read/understand the graph? Dude.
If you’d been keeping up with the rest of the class, this wouldn’t be a problem. That’s what you get for leaving your homework until the last minute.
The rate of rise in unemployment seems to be slowing, but tomorrows numbers will tell the real story.
Thanks Geoff.
Good work Geoff
I’ve been waiting for this chart all week, Geoff.
I’m torn between rooting for our employment actuals to start turning around, or at least follow the Without-Plan line, versus my sweet-tooth hankering for another helping of schadenfreude as our Glorious Administration continues to yell at the mountains and order them to move…
If you’d been keeping up with the rest of the class, this wouldn’t be a problem. That’s what you get for leaving your homework until the last minute.
True. I’m still not gonna study.
I’m torn between rooting for our employment actuals to start turning around…
In a sense this is the administration’s worst nightmare: while people can always claim “the Stimulus kept it from getting worse,” this graph will always say “its effects were insignificant.” No matter how much the economy improves from this point forward (even if the Stimulus is somehow amazingly effective), the suspicion that it was a natural recovery will always taint the administration’s claims.
No matter how much the economy improves from this point forward (even if the Stimulus is somehow amazingly effective), the suspicion that it was a natural recovery will always taint the administration’s claims.
Not if I can help it!
WEELLL? WE’RE WAITING.
I for one hope that the projected number is right and we’re seeing a leveling off, and soon, drop in the unemployment numbers ASAP. I have too many friends out of work. I hope the market continues its recovery. I hope the Phoenix real estate market has reached a healthy supply/demand ratio and begins to improve, and our home and rental properties begin an upward swing in appreciation and rental rates.
All economies rise and fall. This one, at this point in time, fell hard, for various reasons. An eventual recovery is not an if, but a when and how much. Additionally, there is the variable of how the downturn was responded to, by both the public and private sectors of the economy.
Geoff’s chart has more than served it’s purpose…proven its point. The Obama Admin was WRONG, big time WRONG, regarding the effect of it’s policies and the validity of it’s economic ideology. The economy is recovering, as it eventually would have had no legislation been ever been passed. That’s what free markets do.
The question that is left to be debated now is what would have happened had the Stimulus not been passed. Would the recovery happened sooner, in a fashion predicted in the w/o Stimulus of Obama’s graph? We know what did happen after Stimulus, so far and this is what Geoff’s chart shows. We’ll never know what might have been, but I’d submit conservatives begin to make the strong case of the damage that has been done, long term, to the US economy.
I think the private sector has responded pretty well to the recession, both on the individual and corporate level. Savings rates are up, loose spending on luxeries down, and a more realistic (some would say conservative) lifestyle returned to. The predatory lenders and McBanks are out of business. Many of the weak and/or poorly managed businesses are gone from our malls and shopping centers. Companies have trimmed their fat. Business is lean and no longer lazy, and individuals are ready to return to a healthier free market. This is nothing unusual, it happens in every recession.
The private sector, on the other hand, has not responded well to the economic downturn. I won’t claim that none of the spending in Stimulus, or any of the legislation passed over the last year, have all been harmful. I do submit that the legislation that has been passed has mainly been either political, short term, or both. And this legislation will have harmful effects long term, whethor it be deeper deficits, harmful regulations (and I believe there are positive regulations, but the bulk of those passed so far have not been), political divisions, socialist vs. free market policies, etc.
It may be time to move past the “how high will unemployment go?” and focus on spreading the truth about what was said, by this administration and a thousand Socialists before it, and what actually happens…and the Conservative economic alternative. (which, sadly, was not evident in the policies of the Bush administration and recent Republican controlled Congress’).
focus on spreading the truth about what was said, by this administration and a thousand Socialists before it, and what actually happens…
Stay tuned, MostlyRight. Geoff addresses exactly that issue with his charts that compare the growth of the public sector at the expense of the private sector.
dots? Where the fuck are the triangles?
I’m exhausted. Leave me alone.
My buddy dropped off unemployment last month. He did his year and still has 13 weeks available but he did not sign up for it. He is still unemployed, but will be a positive for the graph.
Zeke Bored
Not the Flash!
Went for a walk tonight after the rain. Zeke played in every puddle he could find, and stood in 3 different sprinklers. When I tried to dry him off he ran off with the towel!
Thanks again, Geoff. I always enjoy your charts, honey.
For the record, I attended a town hall meeting last night with Pete Sessions. Ended up sitting on the floor in front right near the stage and then into a front row seat. They planned for 300 and ended up having over a 1,000 folks show up. Folks were passionate, but not rude. One gal even made a joke that she was not bussed in and was not wearing Brooks Brothers clothes.
Several folks had the entire bill all printed out and with them, and most of the libs were unfamiliar with the details. They looked very ignorant. One gal even told Sessions he was a liar and that he didn’t know the details of the bill. The whole room full started in on her, trying to set her straight, but no one was “rude.” Some folks on both sides of the aisle had touching stories, and Sessions was very polite and compassionate. Class act.
If anyone was rude it was a few of the libs pushing question after question with their talking points bathed in the kool-aid they’ve been drinking. Some “boos” were heard, but Sessions was a total gentleman and kept telling the group to let folks talk and show respect for the speakers. But he didn’t let their mis-guided talking points go without his own response.
I was touched when Sessions talked about his teenage son with cerebral palsy, his older son who is already considering that he would like to be a doctor someday, AND that he personally has refused the government health program for the entire 13 some odd years he’s been in office.
I was very happy to see a powerpoint slide with his 5-points that would improve our health care here in the U.S. Most of these are ones that the repubs have been trying to push for years and keep getting pushed away by the dems: association/groups that can jointly purchase health care to reduce costs to individuals, purchasing of insurance with pre-tax dollars, tort reform, portable policies across state lines, insurance available for pre-existing conditions. Sounds like some good positive concepts.
http://gatewaypundit.blogspot.com/2009/08/shock-video-dems-sneak-union-thugs-into.html
Tell me again which side is astroturfing?
Also, you bet your ass the MSM will spin a .1% gain as proof the OBAMA IS THE LIGHTWORKER!!!1!!ALL KNEEL BEFORE HIM11!!1!!, graphs be damned. But, 10% unemployment is Euro-like, so we can all claim that we are now like those enlightened ones over there.
Oh, and forget about ever hearing about “discouraged workers” again. That stuff only flies in a GOP Admin.
[…] rate for July this morning, and the answer is . . . 9.4%. A little lower than the Bloomberg survey predicted it would be, a lot lower than my swag of 9.8%, and, notably, no change from June’s rate of […]