The Unemployment Prediction for July August 6, 2009Posted by geoff in News.
Tomorrow the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the unemployment numbers for July. But in the past couple of months I’ve preceded the actual numbers release with an update based on the Bloomberg survey of economists. They’re normally not too far off, though the May prediction was off by quite a bit.
This month they’ve predicted an unemployment rate of 9.6% ==> only 0.1% above the previous month. The real number is likely to be influenced heavily by whether people stay in the “discouraged worker” category or come back into the “unemployed” category. Last month’s number was suppressed by that effect, so this month I personally am looking for something more along the lines of 9.8%.
In any case, here is what The Chart looks like with the Bloomberg prediction:
Not too bad, though it’s striking how the numbers are following the w/o Stimulus curve. It’s almost like the economy is recovering independent of the Stimulus.
Tomorrow the real numbers will come out, and I’m in addition to The Chart, I’m going to plot up private vs. government employment changes (per Michael’s suggestion), and the number of discouraged workers (per numerous suggestions).
Background info under the fold:
*As always, this chart was constructed by overlaying the actual economic data on top of the chart made by Obama’s economic team to market his stimulus plan.
**Here are some other posts on the subject:
- The percentage of private-employed workers is steadily decreasing, meaning that the burden of supporting government workers is increasing. How long can this trend continue?
- The June numbers.
- Mark Zandi (Moody’s Economy.com) kind of agreed with the Obama team’s projection back in January. But his predictions weren’t much better.
- Saying that “the recession is worse than anybody thought” is a tired old tune
- Everybody did not “guess wrong” on the stimulus package
- The corrected chart for May.
- The predicted numbers for May from a few days ago, with some thoughts on why unemployment is worse than expected even without the stimulus package (and a hearty discussion in the comments on proper graphing)
- A look at the stimulus package spending – how late it is, and how little thus far has been devoted to job creation (it’s basically gone to pay off states’ social services debts)
- The April numbers
- The original post on the subject, noting that criticisms of the stimulus package may not have been motivated by racism after all.